中汽协日前预测2023年中国新能源汽车销量将突破900万辆，新能源车市将维持高景气度。

      记者近日采访获悉，多条自主研发的技术路线有望在新的一年迭代升级，成为中国新能源汽车发展的内生动力，包括钠离子电池、混合动力、氢燃料电池等新技术将助力中国新能源汽车行业加速前行，并进而拉动整个产业链。

　　钠离子电池装车将部分替代锂电池

　　钠离子电池在这个冬天越来越热。

　　传艺科技2022年12月27日公告，公司控股孙公司传艺钠电与中祥航业签署协议，约定通过整合各方优势和资源，在民航辅助车辆新能源替代领域，双方共同合作，开发性价比高的基于钠离子电池的动力储能系统。此外，蜂巢能源、蔚蓝锂芯、孚能科技等多家公司近期也宣布钠离子电池量产的最新进展。“钠离子电池今年的目标是量产装车，预计上半年可以为江铃新能源送样。”孚能科技有关人士2023年1月4日对记者说。

　　2022年11月29日，从中国电子技术标准化研究院传出消息，有关钠离子电池行业标准制定工作加快推进，力争早日上报相关部门。据悉，目前钠离子电池行业标准征求意见稿已完成编制工作，正在业内征求意见。

　　东吴证券最新研报表示，2023年将成为钠离子电池产业化元年，新技术将贡献增量。钠离子行业标准制定的提速，将助力打通上下游供应链。同时，钠离子电池推进速度也在加快，目前行业处于小批量产品测试阶段，实现能量密度130Wh/kg至140Wh/kg，循环寿命3000次左右，预计2023年将开始量产，规模在5GWh以内。

　　钠离子电池使用的电极材料主要是钠盐，相较于锂盐而言储量更丰富，价格更低廉。从2020年开始，伴随碳酸锂价格一路上涨，钠离子电池开始进入快速发展赛道。

　　2021年7月，宁德时代率先发布了第一代钠离子电池技术，电芯单体能量密度达到160Wh/kg，低于磷酸铁锂电池。宁德时代近期宣布，下一代钠电池的能量密度目标是200Wh/kg，和磷酸铁锂相差无几，能够满足续航400公里以下纯电动车的需求。如果能采用锂钠电混搭的AB方案，有望将能力边界拓展至500公里，覆盖65%的新能源车市场。宁德时代日前表示，公司正致力推进钠离子电池在2023年实现产业化。

　　有汽车行业分析师认为，钠离子电池更像是锂电池的一个低成本版本。在锂资源价格高企的背景下，钠电池材料成本优势显著，未来，钠电池与锂电池将会在应用场景上互补，钠锂混搭电池还可以减轻动力电池厂对上游锂资源的依赖程度。“钠离子的加入会使得电池成本更低，续航更长，上车问题不大，但要在开发设计阶段经过验证。”罗兰贝格合伙人时帅分析。

　　混动技术提升帮助新能源车成本下降

　　比亚迪近日介绍，继2022年初哥伦比亚市场引入首批500辆比亚迪混动车型后，1200辆比亚迪超级混动新车抵达哥伦比亚。本次发运的车辆由200辆秦PLUS DM-i(配置|询价)和1000辆宋PLUS DM-i(配置|询价)组成，创下了比亚迪DM-i超级混动车型单次出口量的历史新高。长城汽车、吉利汽车的混动车型近期也纷纷出口海外市场和新建产能，中国混动新能源汽车技术开始赢得国际用户认可。

　　有新能源行业分析师表示，混动架构由专用的混动发动机、驱动电机、DHT变速箱、电机控制器、ECU以及动力电池等部件组成，是一种高集成、高效能、多模油电混动系统。而混动技术的核心在于DHT，即混动专用变速箱。

　　近年来，中国车企相继推出了自主研发的DHT技术，包括比亚迪DMI、长城柠檬DHT、吉利雷神DHT、奇瑞鲲鹏DHT等。国元证券最新研报表示，中国车企此前布局的DHT技术红利实现了更好的性价比，使得混动车的价格已与燃油车相平甚至更便宜，其动力性、静谧性、节能性等产品力优于同等价位燃油车。市场定位也从以前“与纯电车竞争”转向“与燃油车竞争”。2023年，混动车型销量有望迎来大幅增长。

　　根据比亚迪1月2日的数据，2022年比亚迪DM混动乘用车占公司新能源车的比重为50.94%，稳坐主位。尝到混动甜头的比亚迪已经计划在2023年推出混动皮卡车型。

　　北京航空航天大学交通科学与工程学院徐向阳教授表示，未来，双电机串并联构型超越功率分流型将成为自主混动主流技术路线，“串并联可以采用定轴齿轮方案，可制造性更好，动能性更强，能够实现高动力性驾驶的要求。”

　　徐向阳还表示，双电机串并联的多挡化，以电驱动为主的DHT将是混动新能源车未来发展方向，智能化网联化能量管理和控制技术也将成为技术竞争的新高地。

　　另外，有业内专家认为，目前市场上的混动车型配备55公里至120公里的动力电池，比起纯电车型动辄500公里起步，电池容量大幅减少，2023年，面对资源价格高企，随着技术的进步，部分混动车型电池容量还有进一步减少的空间。

　　氢燃料电池技术突破将深入材料层次

　　亿华通2022年12月28日公告，近日与宇通集团控股子公司签订2023年度销售合同约定，宇通轻型、宇通商用向公司合计采购500台燃料电池发动机及相关物料。深圳国氢新能源科技有限公司2022年12月21日披露，未来8个月内，深圳国氢、盐港明珠、东风柳汽、卡盟汽车四方将完成交付投运800辆氢燃料电池汽车。

　　伴随2023年氢燃料电池交付大单纷纷签订，2023年氢能新车也开始亮相。在日前举行的第二十届广州车展上，长安汽车旗下深蓝品牌发布了首款战略车型深蓝SL03(配置|询价)，该车氢电版百公里氢能耗只需0.65公斤，在氢转电的过程中，系统还可以高效回收余热进行采暖，保证冬季续航不缩水。

　　中信证券最新研报看好氢能产业化进程加速，其预计2023年在政策效果合力及降本等推动下，氢燃料电池车销量将实现翻番，氢能车有望实现销量量级的飞跃，其中重卡车型比重有望进一步提升，有效带动产业链价值增长。同时，绿氢制取和在化工领域的应用也有望快速增加。

　　“氢燃料电池技术突破有望深入到材料层次。”中国科学院院士、清华大学车辆与运载学院教授欧阳明高表示，中国氢燃料电池发动机此前在包括金属板电堆和石墨板电堆等技术路线都取得了突破，2023年是氢燃料电池汽车发展的重要窗口期。

　　欧阳明高表示，当前的技术创新核心环节中，氢燃料电池、电解装置有望率先突破，实现降低成本，提高效率，延长寿命，同时从系统层次逐步深入到材料层次。比如，碱性电解的隔膜，造成氢、氧的互串，氢串漏就超标，必须在隔膜上实现突破。

　　东岳未来氢能材料副总经理王振日前介绍，公司正在研发更大幅宽、更高交换容量、更高强度和更长寿命的新电解制氢膜。产品推出后能够实现成本大幅下降，满足国内的供应。

The China Automobile Association recently predicted that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will exceed 9 million in 2023, and the new energy vehicle market will maintain a high profile.
The reporter learned in a recent interview that many independently researched and developed technology routes are expected to be upgraded iteratively in the new year, and become the endogenous power for the development of China's new energy vehicles. New technologies, including sodium ion battery, hybrid power, hydrogen fuel cell and so on, will help China's new energy vehicle industry to speed up and further drive the entire industry chain.
The loading of sodium ion battery will partially replace lithium battery
Sodium ion batteries are getting hotter this winter.
On December 27, 2022, Chuanyi Technology announced that Chuanyi Na Dian, a subsidiary of the company's holding company, signed an agreement with Zhongxiang Aviation Industry, which agreed to jointly develop a cost-effective power storage system based on sodium ion batteries in the field of new energy alternatives for civil aviation auxiliary vehicles by integrating the advantages and resources of all parties. In addition, many companies, such as Honeycomb Energy, Blue Lithium, Funeng Technology, have recently announced the latest progress in mass production of sodium ion batteries. "This year's goal of sodium ion battery is mass production and loading, and it is expected that samples can be sent for Jiangling New Energy in the first half of the year." The relevant personnel of Funeng Technology told reporters on January 4, 2023.
On November 29, 2022, it was reported from the China Electronics Technology Standardization Institute that the development of standards for the sodium ion battery industry was accelerated, and efforts were made to report to relevant departments as soon as possible. It is reported that the draft of the sodium ion battery industry standard has been prepared and is seeking comments in the industry.
According to the latest research report of Soochow Securities, 2023 will be the first year of sodium ion battery industrialization, and new technologies will contribute more. The acceleration of the development of sodium ion industry standards will help open up the upstream and downstream supply chains. At the same time, the promotion speed of sodium ion battery is also accelerating. At present, the industry is in the stage of small batch product testing, realizing the energy density of 130Wh/kg to 140Wh/kg, and the cycle life of about 3000 times. It is expected that mass production will start in 2023, with the scale within 5GWh.
The electrode materials used in sodium ion batteries are mainly sodium salts, which are more abundant and cheaper than lithium salts. Since 2020, with the rising price of lithium carbonate, sodium ion batteries have entered the fast development track.
In July 2021, Ningde Times took the lead in releasing the first generation of sodium ion battery technology, and the energy density of cell monomer reached 160Wh/kg, lower than that of lithium iron phosphate battery. Ningde Times recently announced that the energy density target of the next generation sodium battery is 200Wh/kg, which is almost the same as that of lithium iron phosphate, and can meet the demand of pure electric vehicles with a range of 400km or less. If the AB scheme of lithium sodium electric hybrid can be adopted, it is expected to expand the capacity boundary to 500 kilometers, covering 65% of the new energy vehicle market. Ningde Times recently said that the company is committed to promoting the industrialization of sodium ion batteries in 2023.
Some auto industry analysts believe that sodium ion battery is more like a low-cost version of lithium battery. In the context of high lithium resource prices, sodium battery materials have significant cost advantages. In the future, sodium batteries and lithium batteries will complement each other in application scenarios. Sodium lithium hybrid batteries can also reduce the dependence of power battery plants on upstream lithium resources. "The addition of sodium ion will make the battery cost lower and the battery life longer. It is not a big problem to get on the car, but it should be verified in the development and design stage." Shi Shuai, a partner of Roland Berger, analyzed.
Improvement of hybrid technology helps reduce the cost of new energy vehicles
BYD recently introduced that 1200 new BYD super hybrid vehicles arrived in Colombia after the first 500 BYD hybrid vehicles were introduced in the Colombian market in early 2022. The vehicles shipped this time are composed of 200 Qin PLUS DM-i (configuration | inquiry) and 1000 Song PLUS DM-i (configuration | inquiry), which has set a new record for the export volume of BYD DM-i super hybrid models at a single time. Recently, hybrid models of Great Wall Motors and Geely Motors have also been exported to overseas markets and newly built production capacity, and China's hybrid new energy vehicle technology has begun to win recognition from international users.
An analyst in the new energy industry said that the hybrid architecture is composed of special hybrid engine, drive motor, DHT gearbox, motor controller, ECU, power battery and other components. It is a highly integrated, high-efficient, multi-mode oil electric hybrid system. The core of hybrid technology is DHT, namely hybrid special transmission.
In recent years, Chinese auto enterprises have successively launched DHT technologies independently developed, including BYD DMI, Great Wall Lemon DHT, Geely Raytheon DHT, Chery Kunpeng DHT, etc. According to the latest research report of Guoyuan Securities, the DHT technology dividend previously distributed by Chinese automobile enterprises has achieved better cost performance, making the price of hybrid vehicles equal to or even cheaper than that of fuel vehicles at the same price. Its power, quietness, energy conservation and other products are superior to fuel vehicles at the same price. The market positioning has also changed from "competing with pure electric vehicles" to "competing with fuel vehicles". In 2023, the sales volume of hybrid vehicles is expected to increase significantly.
According to the data of BYD on January 2, BYD DM hybrid passenger vehicles will account for 50.94% of the company's new energy vehicles in 2022, which will be the main vehicle. Having tasted the benefits of hybrid vehicles, BYD has planned to launch hybrid pickup models in 2023.
Professor Xu Xiangyang, School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, said that in the future, the dual motor series parallel configuration will surpass the power split type and become the mainstream technology route of autonomous hybrid
Xu Xiangyang also said that the multi gear dual motor series parallel connection and the electric driven DHT will be the future development direction of hybrid new energy vehicles, and the intelligent networked energy management and control technology will also become a new highland of technical competition.
In addition, some experts in the industry believe that the current hybrid models on the market are equipped with 55km to 120km power batteries. Compared with the pure electric models, the battery capacity will be greatly reduced after starting at 500km. In 2023, in the face of high resource prices, with the progress of technology, there is still room for further reduction of the battery capacity of some hybrid models.
The breakthrough of hydrogen fuel cell technology will go deep into the material level
Yihuatong announced on December 28, 2022 that it had recently signed a 2023 annual sales contract with Yutong Group's holding subsidiaries, and Yutong Light and Yutong Commercial purchased 500 fuel cell engines and related materials from the company. Shenzhen Guohydrogen New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. disclosed on December 21, 2022 that in the next eight months, Shenzhen Guohydrogen, Yangang Pearl, Dongfeng Liuqi and Carmeng Automobile will complete the delivery and operation of 800 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
With the signing of large orders for the delivery of hydrogen fuel cells in 2023, new hydrogen energy vehicles will also begin to appear in 2023. At the 20th Guangzhou Auto Show held a few days ago, Chang'an Auto's Dark Blue brand released the first strategic model, Dark Blue SL03 (configuration | inquiry). The hydrogen energy consumption of the hydrogen electric version is only 0.65 kg per 100 km. During the process of hydrogen to electricity, the system can also efficiently recover the waste heat for heating, so as to ensure the winter endurance without shrinking.
The latest research report of CITIC Securities is optimistic about the acceleration of hydrogen energy industrialization. It is expected that the sales of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will double in 2023, and hydrogen energy vehicles are expected to achieve a leap in sales volume. Among them, the proportion of heavy truck models is expected to further increase, effectively driving the value growth of the industrial chain. At the same time, the production of green hydrogen and its application in chemical industry are expected to increase rapidly.
"The breakthrough in hydrogen fuel cell technology is expected to go deep into the material level." Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the CAS Member and a professor of the School of Vehicle and Transportation of Tsinghua University, said that China's hydrogen fuel cell engines had made breakthroughs in technology routes, including metal plate stacks and graphite plate stacks. 2023 is an important window for the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles.
Ouyang Minggao said that among the core links of the current technological innovation, hydrogen fuel cells and electrolysis devices are expected to take the lead in making breakthroughs to reduce costs, improve efficiency and extend life, while gradually deepening from the system level to the material level. For example, the diaphragm of alkaline electrolysis causes hydrogen and oxygen to cross each other, and hydrogen leakage exceeds the standard, so a breakthrough must be made on the diaphragm.
Wang Zhen, Deputy General Manager of Dongyue Future Hydrogen Energy Materials, recently introduced that the company is developing a new electrolytic hydrogen production membrane with larger width, higher exchange capacity, higher strength and longer life. After the product is launched, the cost can be greatly reduced to meet the domestic supply.