告别三年疫情的蛰伏期，国内车市来到了另一个命运的十字路口。2023年赛场的发令枪已经打响，新能源车市这艘巨轮该驶向何方，虽然不易预测，但难免好奇。

　　据乘联会发布的数据显示，2月1日-19日，全国乘用车新能源车市场零售21.5万辆，同比去年增长43%，较上月同期下降4%，今年累积零售54.6万辆，同比去年增长9%。

　　相比2022年翻倍增长的态势，新能源车市场今年开年以来明显放慢了脚步。从市场走势来看，新能源汽车的发展已经达到了一个瓶颈阶段。虽然不少车企对于今年都提前制定了远大的销量目标，但响亮的口号背后，车企们应该思考的是如何让业绩顺利达成。

　　今年元旦起，延续了13年的新能源汽车国家补贴，正式退出了历史舞台。这一政策的取消，对广大新能源车企造成了直接影响。

　　早在2022年底国补正式退坡之前，比亚迪就率先放出官宣涨价的消息。针对王朝系列、海洋网及腾势品牌相关车型的指导价，进行2000元-6000元不等的涨价幅度。

　　无独有偶，2月28日，腾势汽车官方宣布从3月1日起对腾势D9(配置|询价) EV车型实施6000元的涨价策略。由于上一波官宣涨价时，腾势D9 EV还未开启交付，所以此轮涨价，实际上延续的是上次的调价策略。

　　自比亚迪宣布涨价之后，紧接着，广汽埃安、几何等品牌迅速跟进。截止1月以来，包括极氪、哪吒、零跑、合创、长安深蓝、奇瑞、上汽大众、一汽-大众等十几个品牌，先后官宣了涨价的消息。

　　对于国补退坡新能源车涨价，乘联会秘书长崔东树表示，“新能源车价格调整主要看市场供需，现在新能源车企大多数仍处于亏损状态，市场竞争较为激烈，少数车企掌握着定价权。今年年末到明年年初不会出现大范围的新能源车降价潮，但有可能出现小规模的一轮涨价潮，可能会有几家车企会跟进。”

　　汽车行业分析师张翔则表示，“价格调整主要还是根据市场供需进行的，当前新能源车行业整体的产能是过剩的，部分车企涨价会降低竞争力，只有头部的新能源车企才敢涨价。”

　　GPLP犀牛财经分析认为，诸如比亚迪、广汽埃安等盈利能力较强的公司，可以更好的应对终端价格变化，产品力较强的公司可通过提价的方式，减缓成本上涨和补贴下行带来的价格压力，因此国补退坡后车企纷纷官宣涨价，也是意料之中。

　　然而，涨价策略这一看似可行的路径，却没有换来良好的市场反应。随着市场竞争加剧、原材料价格下降等因素的影响，车企们不得不面临的一个现实问题就是，稳住销量比产品调价更重要。

　　当别的品牌抢着官宣涨价的时候，“鲶鱼”特斯拉却反其道而行之，再次发挥“价格屠夫”的真实面貌。1月6日一早，特斯拉放出重磅新闻，决定对Model 3(配置|询价)和Model Y(配置|询价)两款国产车型进行大幅度降价，其中Model 3的起售价甚至降到了历史最低的22.99万元。

　　自特斯拉实施国产化以来，车型调价早已不是什么新鲜操作，但如此大幅度的降价，堪称史无前例。很快，在特斯拉的连翻暴击之下，刚刚宣布涨价不久的其他车企们，也不得不停车掉头，反向追随特斯拉的脚步。

　　GPLP犀牛财经从北京小鹏汽车某展厅了解到， G3i、P5、P7三款车型，的确有2万-3.6万元的优惠幅度，但未优惠的G9却门可罗雀；而号称“坚决不降价”的蔚来，之前被曝出最高降10万元的巨幅优惠，随后GPLP犀牛财经了解到，部分库存车的确进行了价格下调，只有没有10万元那么大的幅度。

　　不仅造车新势力，本就在电动化领域发力不周的传统大厂们，日子同样也不好过。作为资历最老的百年车企，奔驰一直在豪华领域树立着标杆地位。但终端市场的EQ纯电系列车型，均有着大幅优惠，其中旗舰车型EQS先是官方进行了一波20万元上下的下调策略，然后在此基础上，经销商依然有着10万元左右的让利政策；EQ系列首款车型EQC则同样有着20万元左右的优惠行情，但即使这样，终端市场依旧几乎无人问津。

　　类似的情况还有日系车企。

　　作为丰田进入纯电市场的“排头兵”，bZ4X充当着为后续产品引领的重任，但实际销量情况却大相径庭。据最新行情，一汽丰田bZ4X目前终端裸车价直降6万元，等于入门级车型的价格，与比亚迪元PLUS持平；几乎同一时间，日产ARIYA艾睿雅同样放出了“直降6万”的史前大甩卖。

　　此外，比亚迪近日也对部分区域的某些车型，实施了“限时优惠”政策。湖北省更是联合车企采取大规模的补贴降价措施，以此来激发消费者的买车欲望。

　　GPLP犀牛财经认为，车市遭遇瓶颈期，除了国补退坡导致车企调价，而直接影响市场增量以外，跟新能源市场发展的规律也有关联。近两年来，随着电池技术进步，新能源车市场规模快速增长，渗透率上涨超预期，如今出现一定程度的自然回落，也是预期之内。

　　在过去的2022年，国内新能源车渗透率达到了25%。而据中国汽车工业协会预计，2023年中国新能源汽车销量将为900万辆，同比增长35%。乘联会预计2023年新能源车销量达840万辆，同比增长30%。不难看出，2023年要实现翻一番的同比增长基本无望。

　　新能源车市增量放缓，自然给市场造成一系列影响。比如在营销层面，原本受挫的经销商将继续扩大亏损面；在车企竞争层面，也将进一步加剧新一轮淘汰赛的到来。

　　81%的经销商模式，19%是直营模式，这是2022年车市的主要销售渠道结构。虽然直营模式在基于电气化时代被车企所不断推崇，但在模式运营中，直营模式在中小城市却很难渗透下去。相关数据显示，中小城市直营模式的销量占极低，所以直营模式在全国销售市场布局中面临着体制比较僵化、市场难以渗透的特征。

　　车企层面的竞争以前是卷，到了2023年，恐怕要用手撕和牙咬来形容了。曾与”理小蔚“处于同一梯队的威马汽车，连曝出降薪裁员、债务缠身、工厂停工等消息。虽然威马还在努力借壳上市，试图挽救颓势，但兴衰只在一瞬间，也证明了市场竞争的残酷事实。一直笃定“全域自研”技术路径的零跑汽车创始人朱江明也表示，“成为黑马还是淘汰出局，就看2023年了！”

　　那么，新能源车后续还会不会继续降价呢？

　　在业界看来，新一轮的新能源车降价潮对终端消费者而言将是利好，而受市场竞争加剧、原材料降价等因素影响，新能源汽车市场的降价潮或仍将持续。

　　不仅如此，在行业掀起降价潮的同时，一些低价新车型的出现，也进一步撼动着原有的市场格局。比如近期上市的比亚迪秦PLUS DM-i2023冠军版，其9.98万元的官方起售价，直接杀进了轩逸、雷凌等老牌紧凑型燃油车的价格区间；而零跑C11增程版15.98万元的价格门槛，也再一次刷新的造车新势力紧凑型SUV的价格下限。

　　盘古智库高级研究员江瀚向GPLP犀牛财经表示，“真正具有强势市场影响力和控制力的企业将有可能进一步扩大自己的市场优势，而一些本身竞争力不足的企业也有可能加速被市场所淘汰。”

Say goodbye to the dormant period of the epidemic for three years, and the domestic car market has come to another crossroads of fate. The starting gun of the 2023 race has been fired. It is difficult to predict where the new energy vehicle market will go, but it is hard to avoid curiosity.
According to the data released by the Passenger Car Federation, from February 1 to 19, the retail sales of 215000 new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 43% year on year, down 4% from the same period last month. This year, 546000 vehicles were retail, up 9% year on year.
Compared with the trend of doubling growth in 2022, the new energy vehicle market has slowed down significantly since the beginning of this year. From the market trend, the development of new energy vehicles has reached a bottleneck stage. Although many auto companies have set ambitious sales targets in advance for this year, behind the loud slogans, auto companies should think about how to achieve their performance smoothly.
Since the New Year's Day this year, the national subsidy for new energy vehicles, which has lasted for 13 years, has officially withdrawn from the historical stage. The cancellation of this policy has a direct impact on the majority of new energy vehicle enterprises.
As early as the end of 2022, before the official decline of the state subsidy, BYD was the first to release the official announcement of price increase. According to the guide price of the relevant models of the Dynasty series, Ocean.com and Tencent brand, the price increase ranges from 2000 yuan to 6000 yuan.
Coincidentally, on February 28, Tencent Auto officially announced that it would implement a price increase strategy of 6000 yuan for Tencent D9 (configuration | inquiry) EV models from March 1. Since the delivery of Tencent D9 EV has not yet started when the last wave of official price increases was announced, this round of price increases is actually the continuation of the last price adjustment strategy.
After BYD announced the price increase, GAC Aian, Geometry and other brands quickly followed up. Since January, more than a dozen brands, including Krypton, Nezha, Zero Run, Co-Creation, Chang'an Deep Blue, Chery, SAIC-Volkswagen and FAW-Volkswagen, have announced the price increase.
Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the Passenger Transport Federation, said that the price of new energy vehicles on the national subsidy and retrogradation slope had risen, "The price adjustment of new energy vehicles mainly depends on the supply and demand of the market. At present, most of the new energy vehicle enterprises are still in a loss state. The market competition is relatively fierce, and a few vehicle enterprises hold the pricing power. There will be no large-scale price reduction of new energy vehicles from the end of this year to the beginning of next year, but there may be a small-scale round of price rise, and there may be several vehicle enterprises to follow up."
Zhang Xiang, an auto industry analyst, said, "The price adjustment is mainly based on the supply and demand of the market. At present, the overall capacity of the new energy vehicle industry is overcapacity, and the price increase of some auto companies will reduce competitiveness. Only the leading new energy vehicle companies dare to increase the price."
GPLP Rhino financial analysis believes that companies with strong profitability, such as BYD and GAC Aian, can better cope with terminal price changes, and companies with strong product power can reduce the price pressure caused by cost rise and subsidy decline through price increase. Therefore, it is also expected that auto companies have announced price increase after the national subsidy recession.
However, the seemingly feasible path of price increase strategy did not get a good market response. As the market competition intensifies and the price of raw materials decreases, a practical problem that automobile enterprises have to face is that stabilizing sales is more important than adjusting the price of products.
When other brands scramble to announce the price increase, "catfish" Tesla has gone the other way and once again played the real role of "price butcher". On the morning of January 6, Tesla released a big news and decided to significantly reduce the price of two domestic models, Model 3 (configuration | inquiry) and Model Y (configuration | inquiry). The starting price of Model 3 even dropped to the lowest in history of 229900 yuan.
Since the implementation of the localization of Tesla, the price adjustment of vehicle models has not been a new operation, but such a substantial price reduction is unprecedented. Soon, other auto companies that had just announced the price increase had to stop and turn around, following Tesla's footsteps in the opposite direction.
GPLP Rhino Finance learned from an exhibition hall of Beijing Xiaopeng Automobile that the G3i, P5 and P7 models do have a discount range of 20000 to 36000 yuan, but the G9 that has not been discounted is rare; Weilai, known as "resolutely not to reduce the price", was previously exposed to a huge discount of up to 100000 yuan. Later, GPLP Rhino Finance learned that the price of some stock cars was indeed reduced, only by less than 100000 yuan.
Not only the new forces of car building, but also the traditional big manufacturers who have been weak in the field of electrification, have a hard time. As the oldest century-old car company, Mercedes has always set a benchmark in the luxury sector. However, the EQ pure electric series models in the end market have significant discounts. The flagship EQS model has been officially lowered by about 200000 yuan, and on this basis, dealers still have about 100000 yuan of rebate policy; EQC, the first model of EQ series, also has a preferential market of about 200000 yuan, but even so, the terminal market is still almost deserted.
There are also Japanese auto companies.
As the "pacesetter" of Toyota entering the pure electricity market, bZ4X plays an important role in leading the follow-up products, but the actual sales situation is quite different. According to the latest market, the current terminal naked car price of FAW-Toyota bZ4X has dropped by 60000 yuan, which is equal to the price of entry-level models, and is equal to BYD's PLUS yuan; Almost at the same time, Nissan ARIYA Ereya also released a prehistoric sale of "down 60000".
In addition, BYD recently implemented a "time-limited preferential" policy for some models in some regions. Hubei Province has also taken large-scale subsidy and price reduction measures in conjunction with automobile enterprises to stimulate consumers' desire to buy cars.
GPLP Rhino Finance believes that the bottleneck period of the car market is related to the development of the new energy market, in addition to the price adjustment of the car enterprises caused by the decline of the national subsidy, which directly affects the market growth. In the past two years, with the progress of battery technology, the scale of the new energy vehicle market has grown rapidly, and the penetration rate has risen more than expected. Now there is a certain degree of natural decline, which is also expected.
In the past 2022, the penetration rate of domestic new energy vehicles has reached 25%. According to the prediction of China Automobile Industry Association, the sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 9 million in 2023, up 35% year on year. The passenger transport association predicts that the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 8.4 million in 2023, an increase of 30% year on year. It is not difficult to see that the year-on-year growth of doubling in 2023 is basically hopeless.
The slowdown in the growth of the new energy vehicle market will naturally cause a series of impacts on the market. For example, at the marketing level, the dealers who have been frustrated will continue to expand their losses; At the level of automobile enterprise competition, it will also further intensify the arrival of a new round of knockout.
81% of the dealer model and 19% of the direct sales model, which is the main sales channel structure of the car market in 2022. Although the direct-sale mode has been continuously promoted by automobile enterprises in the era of electrification, it is difficult to penetrate the direct-sale mode in small and medium-sized cities in the mode operation. Relevant data show that the sales volume of the direct sales model in small and medium-sized cities is extremely low, so the direct sales model faces the characteristics of relatively rigid system and difficult market penetration in the national sales market layout.
The competition at the level of automobile enterprises used to be volume. By 2023, I'm afraid it will be described by hand tearing and tooth biting. Weima Motors, once in the same echelon as Li Xiaowei, has repeatedly exposed the news of salary cuts, layoffs, debt, and factory shutdowns. Although Weima is still trying to go public by backdoor, trying to save the decline, but its rise and fall only in a flash, which also proves the cruel fact of market competition. Zhu Jiangming, the founder of Zero-run Motors, who has always been firmly committed to the "global self-research" technology path, also said, "It is 2023 before it becomes a black horse or it is eliminated!"
So, will the price of new energy vehicles continue to be reduced in the future?
In the view of the industry, the new round of price reduction of new energy vehicles will be good for the end consumers, and the price reduction of new energy vehicles market may continue due to the intensification of market competition, the price reduction of raw materials and other factors.
Not only that, while the industry has set off a wave of price cuts, the emergence of some low-cost new models has further shaken the original market pattern. For example, the recently launched BYD Qin PLUS DM-i2023 championship version, with its official starting price of 9.98 million yuan, has directly entered the price range of the old compact fuel vehicles such as Xuanyi and Leiling; And the price threshold of 159800 yuan for the zero-run C11 extended-range version also renewed the price floor of the compact SUV of the new force of car building.
Jiang Han, a senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank, told GPLP Rhino Finance that "enterprises that really have strong market influence and control power will likely further expand their market advantages, and some enterprises with insufficient competitiveness may also be eliminated by the market."