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“两会”看新能源汽车发展“风向”

2023-03-09

 每年的两会正在北京如火如荼的进行,代表们关注了什么?


 据统计,2022年国内新能源汽车产销分别完成了705.8万辆和688.7万辆,同比上涨96.9%和93.4%,产销规模已连续8年保持全球第一。其中自主品牌新能源乘用车市场销售占比达到了79.9%,同比提高了5.4个百分点,创历史新高。现阶段,国内新能源汽车市场处于高速发展期,虽然市场长期前景向好,但也不可避免地出现发展中的问题和瓶颈。为此,2023年全国两会的代表、委员们给出了他们的建议。


  降本增效 提振新能源汽车消费


  进入2023年,随着 “国补”退出,新能源汽车市场出现短期疲软,消费者购买意愿受到一定影响。据乘联会数据显示,2023年1月份新能源汽车零售量同、环比均出现下降,其中环比降幅接近50%。

  近一年来,在特斯拉降价的打击下,部分车企的销量受到影响,究其原因与成本控制息息相关。特斯拉之所以能够做到持续以降价换市场,根本原因在于其对于成本的控制,较低的生产成本带来了超高的毛利率。据相关机构估算,特斯拉单车平均纯利润高达9574美元,大约是通用的3.5倍,比亚迪的5.2倍。对于新能源汽车,特别是纯电动汽车而言,动力电池占据了整车成本的50%-60%。近年来,受困于上游原材料价格暴涨,导致动力电池价格居高不下,整车成本很难实现下探,如何控制成本,实现盈利是新能源车企们迫切需要解决的问题。

资料图片:全国人大代表、长安汽车党委书记、董事长 朱华荣

资料图片:全国人大代表、长安汽车党委书记、董事长 朱华荣


  对此,全国人大代表、长安汽车党委书记、董事长朱华荣建议,在国内,鼓励有技术实力和资金实力的企业加快国内高品质锂资源的探测和开发;在国外,鼓励和引导国内矿产资源企业、整车企业和电池电芯企业等市场主体,通过多种方式进行海外锂矿等矿产资源战略布局与开发。

资料图片:全国人大代表,奇瑞控股集团党委书记、董事长尹同跃

资料图片:全国人大代表,奇瑞控股集团党委书记、董事长尹同跃


  全国人大代表,奇瑞控股集团党委书记、董事长尹同跃指出,“中国是锂电行业的全球生产中心和需求大户,但生产锂电的上游核心、稀缺矿产资源却大都分布于国外。”为此他建议将锂、钴、镍列为国家的战略储备资源,通过与国际,尤其是“一带一路”沿线国家合作,在互利互惠的基础上,推动资源所在国将上述资源作为招商引资的开发项目;同时,引导我国相关企业,尤其是国有企业积极参与资源所在国开发和产业链合作,打造良好的品牌形象和国家口碑,创造可持续高质量发展条件。

  不难发现,两位代表的建议都指向了动力电池的上游原材料,通过内外同步对上游原材料资源布局,从成本端解决动力电池价格问题。


  此外,车规级芯片也与新能源汽车成本有所关联。中国电动汽车百人会副理事长兼秘书长张永伟表示,现阶段每辆车所需的芯片90%以上都靠进口,车规级芯片国产化率很低,仍面临着“卡脖子”难题。


资料图片:全国人大代表、广汽集团总经理冯兴亚

资料图片:全国人大代表、广汽集团总经理冯兴亚


  第一次当选全国人大代表的广汽集团党委副书记、总经理冯兴亚对此给出了建议,首先从政策层面加快引导产业转型,推动“卡脖子”及高端芯片的研发及应用应加大政策刺激力度,在芯片的研发端、应用端以及汽车消费端等多方面研究和出台针对国产芯片全产业链的鼓励措施;其次,加速完善汽车芯片的配套措施,健全汽车芯片应用保障机制、完善细分领域技术规范和测试标准。


  上述两方面原因,再叠加“国补”退出因素,除了少数头部企业外,多数新能源车企都在赔本赚吆喝。从此次全国两会代表的建言中,可以看出企业迫切希望实现降本增效,从而带动新能源汽车消费持续增长。


  政策引导 扩大新能源汽车市场规模


资料图片:蔚来汽车工厂

资料图片:蔚来汽车工厂


  据乘联会数据显示,2023年1月新能源车国内渗透率为25.7%,已降至近11个月来的最低点。除了“国补”退出的因素外,更深层次的原因在于新能源汽车产业内部。车企迫切希望通过政策引导,提振市场销量,扩大新能源汽车市场规模。

  现阶段,新能源汽车市场依旧面临着“补能”难题,以蔚来为代表的车企虽然在积极推广换电模式,但目前仍处于起步阶段。当前的换电模式面临着规划布局整体落后、换电车型研发投入较少、换电站建设成本高、电池标准规格不一、资源共享缺乏基础等问题。今年全国两会上,“换电”成为了热议的关键词,多位业内代表不约而同地围绕换电标准、换电站建设以及推广商用车换电等提出了建议。

  冯兴亚建议要加快全国换电模式推广的整体布局,研究出台各类对换电模式支持的扶持政策,以及支持、鼓励、奖励汽车企业推出换电车型、加大车电分离的政策,在取消新能源汽车购置税免征政策后,针对换电车型免征电池部分的购置税。同时由政府牵头组织企业或行业协会加速统一电池标准,并同步开展公共领域车辆换电试点,在电池规格与换电站标准上统一先行先试,推动汽车电池全面标准化快速落地。

  而尹同跃则将目光聚焦到商用车换电领域。他建议,工信部等部委加快商用车专用换电站等基础设施建设,满足换电模式的应用需求。建议国家有关部委围绕矿场、港口、城市转运等应用场景,推动重型货车和港口内部集卡、大巴等领域电动化转型,形成明确的切换计划。

  此外,对于新能源消费端的政策扶持,两会代表也纷纷建言献策。冯兴亚建议对新能源汽车消费应实施持续补贴,并直接将优惠补贴给到消费者,同时延续汽车购置税减免政策。朱华荣建议公务用车采购中国品牌新能源汽车,由各部委牵头,在公务出行中,鼓励使用、采购中国品牌汽车,助力中国汽车品牌形象塑造。


  向外发力 推动新能源汽车扩大出口


  据统计,2022年我国出口新能源汽车67.9万辆,同比增长约1.2倍。自主品牌新能源车“出海”加速,一方面原因在于自主品牌新能源整车技术实力的提升。从自主品牌出口的海外市场零售数据监控看,上汽等传统车企在欧洲表现较强。以上汽MG为例,据海外网站数据统计,2022年前11月在欧洲市场的累计销量为98,390辆,同比上涨96%,而2018年同期还不足9,000辆。

  另一方面,海外政策环境也为自主新能源汽车“出海”提供了机遇。除了挪威、德国等欧洲国家推出多项支持电动化转型的政策外,近期欧盟提出的“禁燃”法案一旦通过,未来对于自主品牌新能源汽车扩大出口或许是个利好消息。但在此之前,新能源车出口中所面临的一些实际问题也亟待解决。

资料图片:全国政协委员、全国工商联副主席、赛力斯集团董事长 张兴海

资料图片:全国政协委员、全国工商联副主席、东风小康董事长 张兴海


  全国政协委员、全国工商联副主席、东风小康董事长张兴海认为,新能源汽车出口主要面临三方面问题,一是欧美加大在新能源汽车相关领域的研发投入,颁布贸易保护法案、筑高专利壁垒;二是出口认证难,欧美国家对于进口新能源汽车提出了一系列繁复的技术法规及安全要求;三是陆海两个通道运力受限导致出口物流难。对此,张兴海建议一方面国家应给予政策技术性指导,助力车企开拓海外市场,帮助车企在技术交流、海外参展等方面提供便利,帮助解决“认证难”,帮助车企熟悉海外汽车市场规范等;另一方面协调解决出口运输运费高、运力不足等突出问题。铁运降本、补贴运价,打通广州南沙港、宁波港等其他港口运输通道。

  尹同跃则从进出口贸易角度表达了自己的观点。他建议国家税务总局、海关总署等单位研究进一步降低整车进口关税,以便争取更加互惠的贸易政策,降低关税壁垒。商务部等部委加速与中国汽车出口主要市场所在国和地区签订贸易协定或关税联盟,制定与汽车有关的关税政策,同时推进与已签订自贸协定国家的第二阶段谈判,将汽车纳入协定目录。


  此外,尹同跃认为现阶段电动车充电标准也会对新能源汽车“出海”产生一定影响。目前国内电动车使用的充电标准,最高电压与电流分别为950V、250A,最高充电功率不到240kW,被国际充电标准排除在外,对于整车出口会带来不利影响。因此他建议由工信部牵头尽快统一并升级下一代电动车充电标准,并与国际标准进行互通,让国内车企、充电设施及第三方运营企业在统一标准的保驾护航下,升级整车技术,为车主提供更好的充电体验。


图为东风、俊风联合开发的“氢”燃料电池系统


      总结   

  14年前,时任科技部部长万钢提出,中国汽车将在新能源领域实现“弯道超车”。如今,我国已发展成为全球新能源汽车最大生产国和销售国,“弯道超车”的愿望已成为现实。近三年来,尽管经历了疫情、缺芯等冲击,国内新能源汽车市场依旧保持着高速增长的势头。伴随着“国补”退出,新能源汽车市场也将进入一个新的发展阶段,未来该如何实现高质量发展,哪些问题亟待解决,或许从本届全国两会委员代表的建言献策中可以寻找答案。


The annual two sessions are in full swing in Beijing. What did the delegates pay attention to?
According to statistics, in 2022, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles completed 7.058 million and 6.887 million respectively, up 96.9% and 93.4% year on year. The production and sales scale has remained the first in the world for eight consecutive years. Among them, the market sales of new energy passenger vehicles with independent brands accounted for 79.9%, up 5.4 percentage points year on year, reaching a record high. At this stage, the domestic new energy vehicle market is in a period of rapid development. Although the market has a good long-term prospects, there are inevitably problems and bottlenecks in development. To this end, representatives and members of the National People's Congress and the National People's Congress in 2023 gave their suggestions.
Reduce costs and increase efficiency to boost consumption of new energy vehicles
In 2023, with the withdrawal of the "national subsidy", the new energy vehicle market appears to be weak in the short term, and consumers' willingness to buy will be affected to some extent. According to the data of the Passenger Transport Association, the retail volume of new energy vehicles in January 2023 decreased both in the same month and the same month, with a year-on-year decrease of nearly 50%.
In the past year, under the impact of Tesla's price reduction, the sales of some auto companies have been affected. The reason is closely related to cost control. The fundamental reason why Tesla can continue to trade for the market at a reduced price is that it controls the cost, and the lower production cost brings the ultra-high gross profit rate. According to the estimates of relevant agencies, the average net profit of Tesla's single car is as high as 9574 US dollars, about 3.5 times that of GM and 5.2 times that of BYD. For new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, power batteries account for 50% - 60% of the total vehicle cost. In recent years, trapped by the soaring price of upstream raw materials, the price of power batteries has remained high, and it is difficult to lower the cost of finished vehicles. How to control costs and achieve profits is an urgent problem for new energy vehicle enterprises to solve.
In response, Zhu Huarong, deputy to the National People's Congress, secretary of the Party Committee and chairman of Chang'an Automobile, suggested that enterprises with technical and financial strength should be encouraged to accelerate the exploration and development of high-quality lithium resources in China; In foreign countries, encourage and guide domestic mineral resources enterprises, vehicle enterprises, battery cell enterprises and other market entities to carry out the strategic layout and development of overseas lithium and other mineral resources in various ways.
Yin Tongyue, deputy to the National People's Congress, secretary of the Party Committee and chairman of Chery Holding Group, pointed out that "China is the global production center and major consumer of lithium battery industry, but most of the upstream core and scarce mineral resources for lithium battery production are distributed abroad." For this reason, he proposed to list lithium, cobalt and nickel as national strategic reserve resources. Through cooperation with international countries, especially those along the "the Belt and Road", on the basis of mutual benefit, Promote the countries where the resources are located to use the above resources as development projects for attracting investment; At the same time, guide relevant Chinese enterprises, especially state-owned enterprises, to actively participate in the development and industrial chain cooperation of the countries where resources are located, create a good brand image and national reputation, and create conditions for sustainable and high-quality development.
It is not difficult to find that the suggestions of the two representatives both point to the upstream raw materials of the power battery, and solve the price problem of the power battery from the cost side through the internal and external synchronization of the upstream raw material resource layout.
In addition, vehicle-level chips are also related to the cost of new energy vehicles. Zhang Yongwei, vice president and secretary-general of the China Electric Vehicle Hundred People's Association, said that at the present stage, more than 90% of the chips needed for each car are imported, and the localization rate of the car's standard chips is very low, and still faces the problem of "stuck neck".
Feng Xingya, the deputy secretary of the Party Committee and general manager of GAC Group, who was elected as the first deputy to the National People's Congress, gave suggestions on this. First of all, we should speed up the guidance of industrial transformation from the policy level, promote the research and development and application of "neck" and high-end chips, and increase policy incentives. We should study and introduce incentives for the entire industrial chain of domestic chips in the research and development end, the application end, and the automobile consumer end; Secondly, we should accelerate the improvement of supporting measures for automobile chips, improve the application guarantee mechanism for automobile chips, and improve the technical specifications and test standards for subdivision fields.
The above two reasons, combined with the "national subsidy" withdrawal factor, are that most new energy vehicle enterprises are losing money and making money, except for a few leading enterprises. From the comments made by the representatives of the NPC and CPPCC, it can be seen that enterprises are eager to reduce costs and increase efficiency, so as to drive the continuous growth of new energy vehicle consumption.
Policy guidance to expand the market scale of new energy vehicles
According to the data of the Passenger Transport Association, the domestic penetration rate of new energy vehicles in January 2023 was 25.7%, which has dropped to the lowest level in nearly 11 months. In addition to the withdrawal of "national subsidy", the deeper reason lies in the new energy vehicle industry. Automobile enterprises are eager to boost market sales and expand the scale of new energy vehicle market through policy guidance.
At this stage, the new energy vehicle market is still facing the problem of "energy supplement". Although the automobile enterprises represented by Weilai are actively promoting the electricity exchange mode, they are still in the initial stage. The current power exchange mode is faced with such problems as the overall backward planning and layout, less investment in research and development of the tram type, high construction cost of the power exchange station, different battery standards and specifications, and lack of foundation for resource sharing. At this year's NPC and CPPCC, "power exchange" became a hot topic, and many industry representatives made suggestions on the standard of power exchange, the construction of power exchange stations and the promotion of commercial vehicle power exchange.
Feng Xingya suggested that we should accelerate the overall layout of the promotion of the national electricity exchange mode, study and introduce various supporting policies for the electricity exchange mode, and support, encourage and reward the automobile enterprises to launch the policies of replacing electric vehicles and increasing the separation of electric vehicles from electric vehicles. After the exemption of the purchase tax on new energy vehicles, the purchase tax on the battery part of the replacement electric vehicles will be exempted. At the same time, the government will take the lead in organizing enterprises or industry associations to accelerate the unification of battery standards, and simultaneously carry out the pilot of vehicle power exchange in the public domain, unify the battery specifications and the standards of power exchange stations, and promote the rapid implementation of comprehensive standardization of automobile batteries.
Yin Tongyue focused on the field of commercial vehicle power exchange. He suggested that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other ministries and commissions speed up the construction of infrastructure such as special power stations for commercial vehicles to meet the application requirements of the power exchange mode. It is suggested that the relevant national ministries and commissions should promote the electric transformation of heavy trucks, internal container trucks and buses in ports around the application scenarios of mines, ports and urban transshipments, and form a clear switching plan.
In addition, for the policy support of new energy consumption end, representatives of the two sessions have also made suggestions. Feng Xingya suggested that continuous subsidies should be implemented for the consumption of new energy vehicles, and preferential subsidies should be directly given to consumers, while the reduction and exemption policy of vehicle purchase tax should be extended. Zhu Huarong suggested that the purchase of new energy vehicles of Chinese brands for official vehicles should be led by various ministries and commissions to encourage the use and purchase of Chinese brand vehicles in official travel and help build the image of Chinese automobile brands.
Push outward to expand the export of new energy vehicles
According to statistics, China will export 679000 new energy vehicles in 2022, an increase of about 1.2 times year on year. The acceleration of "going to sea" of self-owned brand new energy vehicles is partly due to the improvement of the technical strength of self-owned brand new energy vehicles. From the perspective of retail data monitoring of overseas markets exported by independent brands, SAIC and other traditional auto companies have performed better in Europe. For example, according to the statistics of overseas websites, the cumulative sales volume in the European market in the first 11 months of 2022 was 98390 vehicles, up 96% year on year, compared with less than 9000 vehicles in the same period of 2018.
On the other hand, the overseas policy environment also provides opportunities for independent new energy vehicles to "go to sea". In addition to Norway, Germany and other European countries that have launched a number of policies to support the transformation of electrification, once the "no combustion" bill proposed by the EU recently passed, it may be good news for the expansion of exports of new energy vehicles with independent brands in the future. But before that, some practical problems faced by the export of new energy vehicles also need to be solved.
Zhang Xinghai, member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, vice chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, and chairman of Dongfeng Xiaokang, believes that the export of new energy vehicles is mainly faced with three problems. First, Europe and the United States should increase their investment in research and development in new energy vehicle-related fields, issue trade protection laws, and build up patent barriers; Second, export certification is difficult. European and American countries have put forward a series of complicated technical regulations and safety requirements for imported new energy vehicles; Third, the limited transport capacity of both land and sea channels leads to difficulties in export logistics. In this regard, Zhang Xinghai suggested that, on the one hand, the state should give policy and technical guidance to help automobile enterprises develop overseas markets, help automobile enterprises provide convenience in technical exchange, overseas exhibition and other aspects, help solve the "certification difficulties", help automobile enterprises get familiar with overseas automobile market specifications, etc; On the other hand, we should coordinate and solve the outstanding problems such as high export transport costs and insufficient transport capacity. The cost of railway transportation will be reduced, the freight rate will be subsidized, and the transportation channels of Guangzhou Nansha Port, Ningbo Port and other ports will be opened.
Yin Tongyue expressed his views from the perspective of import and export trade. He suggested that the State Administration of Taxation, the General Administration of Customs and other units study further reducing the import tariff of finished vehicles in order to strive for more mutually beneficial trade policies and reduce tariff barriers. The Ministry of Commerce and other ministries and commissions will speed up the signing of trade agreements or tariff alliances with countries and regions where China's major automobile export markets are located, formulate tariff policies related to automobiles, and promote the second phase of negotiations with countries that have signed free trade agreements, and include automobiles in the list of agreements.
In addition, Yin Tongyue believes that the charging standard of electric vehicles at the current stage will also have a certain impact on the "sailing" of new energy vehicles. At present, the charging standards used by domestic electric vehicles, with the maximum voltage and current of 950V and 250A respectively, and the maximum charging power of less than 240kW, are excluded from the international charging standards, which will have a negative impact on the export of complete vehicles. Therefore, he suggested that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology should take the lead in unifying and upgrading the charging standards of the next generation of electric vehicles as soon as possible, and communicating with international standards, so that domestic vehicle enterprises, charging facilities and third-party operating enterprises can upgrade the vehicle technology under the escort of the unified standards, and provide better charging experience for car owners.
The picture shows the "hydrogen" fuel cell system jointly developed by Dongfeng and Junfeng
Summary
Fourteen years ago, Wan Gang, then minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, proposed that Chinese cars would achieve "overtaking in corners" in the field of new energy. Today, China has developed into the largest producer and seller of new energy vehicles in the world, and the desire of "overtaking at corners" has become a reality. In the past three years, despite the impact of epidemic and lack of core, the domestic new energy vehicle market has maintained a momentum of rapid growth. With the withdrawal of the "national subsidy", the new energy vehicle market will also enter a new stage of development. How to achieve high-quality development in the future and what problems need to be solved may be found in the suggestions and suggestions of the representatives of the NPC and CPPCC.