“动力电池的成本已经占到电动车成本近60%，那我们现在不是在给宁德时代打工吗？”

面对这样的调侃，宁德时代表示：自己也是“打工人”！作为电池厂商，自己也是在给上游原材料厂商打工。

如此一来，公说公有理婆说婆有理，两边都叫苦两边都哭穷，实际情况到底如何？

2022年已经快过完，目前宁德时代公开财报数据停留在三季度。

从营收上来看，Q3收入937.7亿，环比一二季度大幅增长，与去年同期相比也是大增232.5%。今年前三个季度，宁德时代营收加起来有2103亿，超过2022《财富》世界500强营收286亿美金的门槛线。

净利润方面，第三季度净利润94.2亿，平均每天净赚1个亿多点，同比增长188.42%，超过上半年的净利润总和，上半年净利润81.亿7。也就是说，截至三季度，宁德时代今年净利润有175.9亿。

从整体营收净利规模上来看，宁王还是那个宁王。但是似乎相比增长规模，市场更看重“增长质量”。

因为和前两个季度相比，不管是综合毛利率还是净利率，第三季度都有所下滑。具体来看，前三季度综合毛利率分别是14.48%、21.85%、19.3%；整体净利率分别为4.06%、11.97%、10.23%。

是什么影响了第三季度宁德时代的毛利率和整体净利率？答案是上游原材料价格。

作为动力电池的关键原材料，在电动车市场爆发后，本来用在玻璃、陶瓷、化工、医药等行业的边角料角色——碳酸锂，摇身一变，从“工业味精”成了“白色石油”。

从2020年7月的4万元/吨，直线上涨到现在的58.75万元/吨，一路破纪录，还有最新消息说突破了60万/吨。

碳酸铁锂本身的使用价值而言，肯定不值这么贵，资本炒作嫌疑颇大。所以宁德时代也哭诉，自己也是给供应链上游打工的，遇到原材料降价阶段，也需要“买买买”囤货，自然就影响利润报表——截至三季度末，宁德时代存货余额为790.25亿元，同比增长96.58%。

从上游老板“天齐锂业”、“赣锋锂业”的业绩来看，确实也赚的不少。

以天齐锂业为例，2022年前三季度累计净利润159.81亿，同比增长2916.44%；赣锋锂业，前三季度累计净利润147.95亿，同比增长498.31%。

没办法，上游原材料受制于人，宁德时代也在努力布局产业链，不管是合资还是投资收购，只要能够综合降低原材料成本，都要去尝试尝试。

否则碳酸锂一路涨上去，宁德时代就得被迫减产。最终承压的，还只能是下游车企。

不过，从目前新能源车企的一些战略变动上看，似乎也快“压不住”了。

相比宁德时代还有盈余的钱包相比，新能源车企绝大部分都是亏损状态。到了2022年，新能源赛道没有人再谈颠覆和变革，大家都在为生存而战，幸存者们只想巩固自有领域。

在刚刚过去的11月，新势力一批都很积极的公布了交付量，理想和蔚来都创造了月度交付记录，小鹏继续掉队，哪吒、极氪(配置|询价)最有可能完成年度目标，至于其他比如零跑、问界、埃安距离年度目标都差一大截。

但是，比起交付量，更让新能源车企头疼的还是盈利问题，“卖一台亏一台”成了魔咒。

一些传统车企转型做的新能源品牌，都在用燃油车的利润养新能源，所以吉利再能赚钱，也撑不下去了，希望极氪可以拆分独立上市。

那想要实现盈利，就不得不考虑成本，这其中，占大头的就是电池。

对于想要认真长期发展的新能源车企来说，自己做电池确实是个不错的选择。

这里面，动静最大的是蔚来，20亿投资建立电池公司，引起了很大的关注。

至于调侃自己给宁德时代打工的广汽集团，总投资109亿元成立因湃电池科技公司。其他如奔驰、宝马、大众、特斯拉、埃安等新能源车企，也慢慢通过自建电池厂或股权投资等方式布局电池赛道。

肉眼可见，一场围绕电池的博弈已经展开。车企一边跟电池厂商深度绑定，一边试图挣扎独立自研电池技术。

下场造电池，对于有订单能力的新能源车企而言，需要攻克的只是研发门槛和量产难题。但对于电池厂商来说，还需要考虑，整体市场产能过剩的可能。

数据显示，截至10月，国内动力电池累计产量已达到425.9Gwh，同比增长166.5%。但同期国内动力电池装机量仅224.2Gwh，产量与装机量的差值已扩大至201.7Gwh，相较去年年底，差值扩大了3.09倍。

就算除去今年1-10月出口的的105.2Gwh，目前动力电池社会库存仍高达96.5Gwh。

所以，从长远角度来看，一边是现在车企下场自造电池，一边是电池厂商产能增加，或许未来动力电池产能过剩会成为主要矛盾。

而对于宁王来说，想要维持万亿市值，就需要不断输出新故事。

显然，曾经在新能源供应链上拥有绝对话语权的宁王，正在经历来自整个产业链的“反抗”。

有不少车企认为宁王“霸王条款”，提前支付货款、买电池要排队这种要求让很多车企欲语泪先流，本来就是亏钱的，还要提前给你打款——但这种预付款行为，其实从商业角度来看，宁王没有错，不然盈利能力堪忧的客户，电池给你了，你没钱买怎么办？

这也另一方面反映了，宁王家的电池质量，确实好，大家排着队也要买，这也是宁王在技术、产品上积累的多年资本。

不过，从当前的战略来看，宁王决定未来把新故事的锚点定在新电池和海外市场。

今年6月，宁德时代发布第三代CTP——麒麟电池。电池包体积利用率从第一代的55%提升到72%，能量密度达255Wh/kg，可实现整车1000公里续航。

1000公里是什么概念，对比一下，去年我国新能源汽车的平均续航里程还在500公里区间，今年已经进一步提升到6平均00公里左右甚至更多。

麒麟电池现在已经实现量产出货，首批量产电池会在明年一季度装载于极氪009车型上市。

除此之外，对下游车企，宁德时代还发布了一系列新技术：EVOGO换电、钠离子电池、M3P(配置|询价)电池……

无疑，对于宁德时代来说，每年投在研发上的资金，就是用来不断提升电池技术。只有把电池产品质量提升上去了，盈利之路除了成本之外，就可以多一个价格方向。

至于天价碳酸锂问题，除了自己向上游布局之外也还是得依靠技术和创新来解决：既然锂电池太贵，那就用钠离子电池，总而言之，抢锂矿不成那就换个矿种来挖。

新电池之外，第二条路就是海外市场，包括美洲和欧洲市场。只是进入美国市场，目前仍是宁德时代的一大难题。

作为世界第一的宁德时代，在海外尤其是美国市场最大的威胁是LG新能源。

LG新能源，全球第二的电池厂商。相比宁德时代，LG新能源天然具有海外基因，一直是全球优等生，在北美建设生产基地比宁德时代顺利的多——就在第三季度财报发布同一天，宁德时代还宣布了放缓北美电池厂投资计划，因为担心美国采购电池材料新规推高成本。

不过，宁王想得到出海，竞争对手肯定也想得到，结果就是大家在海外狭路相逢，比如蜂巢能源今年9月，宣布在德国勃兰登堡州建设第二座海外工厂，主要从事电池生产；远景电力则与西班牙政府签署协议，规划建立产能为30GWh的超级动力电池工厂等。

总而言之，不管是新电池技术还是出海战略，宁王能讲的新故事有限，资本是否买账，宁王也没有足够把握。

只是，作为一家动力电池厂商，宁王身上肩负了很多商业公司责任之外的事情，比如说电池技术的进步，电池量产能力的提升等等，大家都在盯着宁王。无论是下游车企还是竞争对手，都有一种矛盾心理，一边担心它过于强大，一边又期待它可以更强大。

最后，从市场角度来看，宁德时代所处的赛道，未来增长还是具有极强的确定性。根据弗若斯特沙利文报告，在预测期内，全球新能源乘用车销量预计将以29.8%的复合年增长率增长，预计2026年全球新能源乘用车渗透率将达到30.1%。

反正现在新能源汽车渗透率还有很大的增长空间，宁王放开了做，世界第一的位置还是能坐稳的。

At this year's World Power Battery Conference, Zeng Qinghong, Chairman of GAC Group, targeted the profitability of new energy vehicle enterprises at the Ningde era:
"The cost of power batteries has accounted for nearly 60% of the cost of electric vehicles, so aren't we working for the Ningde era now?"
In the face of such ridicule, Ningde Times said: I am also a "migrant worker"! As a battery manufacturer, I also work for upstream raw material manufacturers.
In this way, the public said that the public's wife was right. Both sides complained and both sides were poor. What's the actual situation?
The year 2022 is almost over. At present, the public financial report data of Ningde Times stays in the third quarter.
From the perspective of revenue, Q3's revenue was 93.77 billion, a substantial increase from the first quarter to the second quarter, and a significant increase of 232.5% compared with the same period last year. In the first three quarters of this year, the total revenue of Ningde Times was 210.3 billion, exceeding the threshold of the 2022 Fortune Global 500 with a revenue of 28.6 billion dollars.
In terms of net profit, the net profit in the third quarter was 9.42 billion yuan, averaging more than 100 million points a day, an increase of 188.42% year on year, which exceeded the total net profit in the first half of the year. The net profit in the first half of the year was 8.17 billion yuan. That is to say, as of the third quarter, Ningde Times had a net profit of 17.59 billion this year.
In terms of the overall net income scale, King Ning is still the King Ning. But it seems that the market values "growth quality" more than growth scale.
Because compared with the previous two quarters, both the comprehensive gross profit rate and the net profit rate declined in the third quarter. Specifically, the comprehensive gross profit rates in the first three quarters were 14.48%, 21.85% and 19.3% respectively; The overall net interest rates were 4.06%, 11.97% and 10.23% respectively.
What affected the gross profit rate and overall net profit rate of Ningde Era in the third quarter? The answer is the price of upstream raw materials.
As the key raw material of power battery, lithium carbonate, originally used as a leftover material in glass, ceramics, chemical industry, medicine and other industries, has changed from "industrial monosodium glutamate" to "white oil" after the outbreak of the electric vehicle market.
From 40000 yuan/ton in July 2020, it has risen to 587500 yuan/ton, breaking the record all the way, and the latest news says it has exceeded 600000 yuan/ton.
In terms of the use value of lithium iron carbonate itself, it must not be so expensive, and there is a great suspicion of capital speculation. Therefore, Ningde Times also complained that it also worked for the upstream of the supply chain. In the stage of raw material price reduction, it also needed to "buy, buy" and stock up, which naturally affected the profit statement. As of the end of the third quarter, the inventory balance of Ningde Times was 79.25 billion yuan, up 96.58% year on year.
Judging from the performance of the upstream bosses, "Tianqi Lithium" and "Ganfeng Lithium", they really made a lot of money.
Taking Tianqi Lithium as an example, the accumulated net profit in the first three quarters of 2022 was 15.981 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2916.44%; Ganfeng Lithium has accumulated a net profit of 14.795 billion in the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 498.31%.
There is no way. The upstream raw materials are under the control of others. Ningde Times is also trying to layout the industrial chain. No matter it is a joint venture or an investment acquisition, as long as the cost of raw materials can be comprehensively reduced, we should try.
Otherwise, if lithium carbonate rises all the way up, Ningde era will be forced to reduce production. The ultimate pressure bearing enterprises can only be downstream automobile enterprises.
However, from the perspective of some strategic changes of the current new energy vehicle enterprises, it seems that they are almost "overwhelmed".
Compared with the surplus wallet in Ningde era, most new energy vehicle enterprises are in a loss state. By 2022, no one will talk about subversion and change in the new energy track. Everyone is fighting for survival. The survivors only want to consolidate their own fields.
In the past November, a group of new forces actively announced the delivery volume. Ideal and Weilai both created monthly delivery records. Xiao Peng continued to fall behind. Nezha and Jikru (configuration | inquiry) are most likely to achieve their annual goals. As for other things, such as Zero Run, Questioning, and Egan, they are far from the annual goals.
However, compared with the delivery volume, the new energy vehicle enterprises are more worried about the problem of profitability, and "selling one unit and losing one unit" has become a curse.
Some new energy brands transformed from traditional automobile enterprises are using the profits of fuel vehicles to support new energy. Therefore, Geely can no longer make money. It is hoped that Krypton can be separated and listed independently.
If you want to make a profit, you have to consider the cost. Among them, batteries account for the majority.
For new energy vehicle enterprises that want to seriously develop for a long time, making their own batteries is really a good choice.
Among them, the most dynamic is Weilai, which has invested 2 billion yuan to establish a battery company, which has attracted great attention.
As for GAC Group, which mocked itself for working for Ningde Times, it invested 10.9 billion yuan to establish Yinpai Battery Technology Co., Ltd. Other new energy vehicle enterprises, such as Mercedes Benz, BMW, Volkswagen, Tesla, and Ai'an, have also gradually laid out the battery track through self built battery plants or equity investment.
It can be seen from the naked eye that a game has started around batteries. While deeply binding with battery manufacturers, auto enterprises are struggling to independently develop battery technology.
For new energy vehicle enterprises that have the ability to order, what they need to overcome is only the R&D threshold and mass production problems. However, for battery manufacturers, it is also necessary to consider the possibility of overcapacity in the overall market.
Data shows that by October, the cumulative output of domestic power batteries had reached 425.9Gwh, up 166.5% year on year. However, in the same period, the installed capacity of domestic power batteries was only 224.2Gwh, and the difference between the output and the installed capacity has expanded to 201.7Gwh, 3.09 times higher than that at the end of last year.
Even excluding 105.2Gwh exported from January to October this year, the social inventory of power battery is still as high as 96.5Gwh.
Therefore, in the long run, on the one hand, auto enterprises are now going to manufacture their own batteries, and on the other hand, battery manufacturers are increasing their capacity. Perhaps the overcapacity of power batteries will become the main contradiction in the future.
For Ning Wang, if you want to maintain the trillion market value, you need to constantly output new stories.
Obviously, Ning Wang, who once had an absolute say in the new energy supply chain, is experiencing "resistance" from the entire industrial chain.
Many car companies think that Ningwang's "overlord clause" makes many car companies cry first when they pay for goods in advance and queue up to buy batteries. It is a loss of money and they will pay you in advance - but from a commercial perspective, Ningwang is not wrong with this advance payment, otherwise, customers with poor profitability will have no money to buy batteries if they give them to you?
On the other hand, it also reflects that the battery quality of Ningwang's family is really good, and everyone has to buy it in line, which is also the capital Ningwang has accumulated in technology and products for many years.
However, from the perspective of current strategy, Ning Wang decided to focus on new batteries and overseas markets in the future.
In June this year, Ningde Times released the third generation CTP - Kirin Battery. The volume utilization rate of the battery pack has increased from 55% of the first generation to 72%, and the energy density has reached 255Wh/kg, which can realize the 1000 km endurance of the whole vehicle.
What is the concept of 1000 km? By contrast, the average range of new energy vehicles in China last year was still 500 km, and this year it has been further improved to 6 average kilometers or even more.
Kirin batteries have now been mass produced and shipped, and the first batch of mass produced batteries will be loaded into the Krypton 009 model and launched in the first quarter of next year.
In addition, for downstream car enterprises, Ningde Times also released a series of new technologies: EVOGO power exchange, sodium ion battery, M3P (configuration | inquiry) battery
Undoubtedly, for Ningde Times, the funds invested in R&D every year are used to continuously improve battery technology. Only by improving the quality of battery products, can the profit path be more price oriented than cost.
As for the problem of overpriced lithium carbonate, we have to rely on technology and innovation to solve it in addition to our own upstream distribution: since lithium batteries are too expensive, we should use sodium ion batteries. In a word, if we can't compete for lithium ore, we should replace it with another mineral.
In addition to new batteries, the second way is overseas markets, including the American and European markets. Just entering the American market is still a big problem in the Ningde era.
As the world's first Ningde era, the biggest threat to the overseas market, especially in the United States, is LG New Energy.
LG New Energy is the second battery manufacturer in the world. Compared with the Ningde Times, LG New Energy is naturally endowed with overseas genes, and has always been a global top student. The construction of a production base in North America is much smoother than that in the Ningde Times. On the same day as the third quarter financial report was released, Ningde Times also announced a plan to slow down the investment in North American battery plants, because it was worried that the new regulations for purchasing battery materials in the United States would drive up costs.
However, Ning Wang wanted to go to sea, and his competitors certainly wanted to. As a result, we met in a narrow way overseas. For example, Honeycomb Energy announced in September this year that it would build a second overseas factory in Brandenburg, Germany, mainly engaged in battery production; Vision Power signed an agreement with the Spanish government to build a super power battery factory with a capacity of 30GWh.
In a word, whether it is new battery technology or going to sea strategy, Ning Wang has limited new stories to tell. Ning Wang is not sure whether capital will buy it.
However, as a power battery manufacturer, Ningwang has undertaken many things beyond the responsibility of a commercial company, such as the progress of battery technology, the improvement of battery mass production capacity, and so on. Everyone is watching Ningwang. Both downstream automobile enterprises and competitors have a contradictory mentality, worrying that it is too powerful, while expecting it to be more powerful.
Finally, from the market point of view, the future growth of the track where Ningde Times is located is still highly certain. According to the Frost Sullivan report, during the forecast period, the global sales of new energy passenger vehicles are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 29.8%, and the global penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles is expected to reach 30.1% in 2026.
Anyway, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles still has a lot of room for growth. Ning Wang has let go, and the world's number one position is still stable.