经历了10个月的消息空窗期，特斯拉再次公布了4680大圆柱电池的新一轮信息。

　　据报道，日前，特斯拉方面证实，其位于加州弗里蒙特超级工厂的电池生产线一周生产了86.8万颗4680电芯，这一产量可以满足1000辆Model Y车型配套需求。而在今年2月，特斯拉公布其当时累计生产了100万颗4680电芯。

　　一周86.8万颗，那么其月产能就将超过370万颗4680电芯，足以表明特斯拉4680电芯的生产能力得到了明显提升。值得注意的是，此前特斯拉决定在德国柏林工厂同步生产4680大圆柱电池，但随着美国《减少通货膨胀法案》补贴政策的推出，特斯拉逐渐将4680的生产重心转移到美国本土，预计2023年起其将逐步提升在美国本土的4680电芯的生产效率和能力。

　　可以确定的是，2023年特斯拉4680电池将进入大规模量产节点，叠加亿纬锂能、比克电池、LG新能源、松下电池、宁德时代等较早在大圆柱上进行布局的电池企业，2023年大圆柱电池有望在电动汽车市场开始发挥较为明显的作用。

　　此前中金曾预测，2023年将成为4680电池量产元年，全球4680电池装机量有望超20GWh，2024年将超100GWh。

　　除了特斯拉，今年宝马也确定了大圆柱电池路线。今年9月，宝马集团宣布，将从2025年起率先在“新世代”车型中使用圆柱电芯。

　　据宝马集团介绍，全新圆柱电芯(宝马称第六代电池)具有46mm的标准直径和两种不同的高度。业内推测可能为4695和46120系列大圆柱电池。“全新圆柱电芯可让能量密度较目前方形电池提升超过20%，续航里程提升多达30%，充电速度提升多达30%。”宝马集团透露，“基于当前市场环境的预判，第六代电池相较于第五代产品，成本可降低多达50%。”

　　宝马集团负责采购和供应商网络的董事普斯特博士表示，宝马将与合作伙伴在中国、欧洲、以及北美自由贸易区各建立两家电芯工厂，六家电芯工厂年产能均可达到20 GWh。

　　宝马集团已经确定三家大圆柱电池供应商，分别为宁德时代、亿纬锂能、远景动力。其中，宁德时代和亿纬锂能将分别保障宝马集团在中国和欧洲的圆柱电池需求，远景动力主要满足宝马集团在北美市场的大圆柱电池需求。

　　在特斯拉、宝马等国际主机厂的带动下，以及电池企业的持续投入下，预计会有更多车企跟进大圆柱电池。东北证券预计，2025年全球46系列大圆柱电池装机量有望达到255GWh，全球市场渗透率可提至20%，圆柱电池在全球动力电池市场中的占比将出现明显提升，“未来4680增长空间巨大，将实现从“0-1-N”的快速增长。”

　　特斯拉4680产线最初良率只有20%，今年上半年其加州工厂生产的小批量4680电芯良品率已达到92%。现如今，特斯拉已经将大圆柱电池产能提至每周86.8万颗，表明其产线良率已经达到稳定水平，预计2023年其产能有望会继续刷新纪录，突破量产炼狱。

　　除了特斯拉外，电池企业在大圆柱上的产能也有望在2023年快速释放。今年6月，LG新能源宣布投资5800亿韩元，在其韩国忠清北道梧仓第二工厂扩建9 GWh的4680圆柱电池产能，项目预计在2023年下半年开始大规模生产。此外，LG新能源还宣布在美国亚利桑那州投资1.7万亿韩元建立全资动力电池工厂，规划建设年产11GWh圆柱电池项目，预计2024年下半年投产。

　　今年6月松下向特斯拉发送了4680电池样品。松下能源部门的CEO Tadanobu表示，松下预计将于2023年5月在日本实现4680电池的量产，预计该工厂最终将过渡到4680电池的生产上。值得注意的是，今年3月，松下旗下能源公司宣布在日本和歌山工厂建设新生产设施，用于生产4680电池，两条产线规划产能为10GWh。

　　国内电池企业方面，亿纬锂能于2021年在湖北荆门启动建设的首个20GWh大圆柱电池项目即将建成。有消息称，亿纬锂能大圆柱全自动中试线累计产出电池已达到50万颗，整体优率92%，克服了全极耳揉平、焊接、注液等技术难点。

　　另外，2022年12月15日，亿纬锂能发布新一代4695大圆柱电池，能量密度达到350Wh/kg，能够实现9min超快充及500-1000km续航，制造效率提升30%，制造成本降低50%。根据规划，亿纬锂能2025年大圆柱总产能将超100GWh，将拥有辽宁沈阳、四川成都、湖北荆门、匈牙利等生产基地。

　　作为在圆柱领域较早起家的比克电池，目前其46系电芯去年开始陆续有样品批量交付，性能表现符合预期。产能扩充上，比克也有了初步规划，未来几年，比克将分两个阶段在海内外扩充80GWh的电池产能。

　　值得注意的是，12月初，国轩高科向海外客商首次展示了39Ah和50Ah两款46系列圆柱电芯，能量密度达到310Wh/kg，常温下18分钟能快速充电至80%，且在UN38.3极限测试环境中保证无热扩散。这表明国轩高科已经进入46系列大圆柱电池阵营。

46 series large cylinder battery is breaking through the yield bottleneck and accelerating mass production
After a 10 month news window, Tesla released a new round of information on 4680 cylinder batteries.
It is reported that Tesla recently confirmed that its battery production line located in Fremont Super Factory, California, produced 868000 4680 cells a week, which can meet the supporting needs of 1000 Model Y. In February this year, Tesla announced that it had produced 1 million 4680 cells.
46 series large cylinder battery is breaking through the yield bottleneck and accelerating mass production
With 868000 cells a week, the monthly production capacity will exceed 3.7 million 4680 cells, which is enough to show that the production capacity of Tesla 4680 cells has been significantly improved. It is worth noting that Tesla previously decided to synchronously produce 4680 large cylindrical batteries in the Berlin factory in Germany. However, with the introduction of the subsidy policy of the US Inflation Reduction Act, Tesla gradually shifted the production focus of 4680 cells to the US. It is expected that from 2023, Tesla will gradually improve the production efficiency and capacity of 4680 cells in the US.
It can be determined that Tesla 4680 batteries will enter the large-scale mass production node in 2023, and the battery enterprises that have earlier laid out on the big cylinder, such as Yiwei Lithium Energy, Bike Battery, LG New Energy, Panasonic Battery and Ningde Era, are expected to play a more significant role in the electric vehicle market in 2023.
Previously, CICC had predicted that 2023 would become the first year of mass production of 4680 batteries, and the global installed capacity of 4680 batteries was expected to exceed 20GWh and 100GWh in 2024.
In addition to Tesla, BMW has also determined the route of large cylinder battery this year. In September this year, BMW Group announced that it would be the first to use cylindrical battery cells in "new generation" models from 2025.
According to BMW Group, the new cylindrical cell (BMW called the sixth generation battery) has a standard diameter of 46mm and two different heights. It is speculated in the industry that 4695 and 46,120 series large cylindrical batteries may be used. "The new cylindrical battery cell can increase the energy density by more than 20%, the range by up to 30%, and the charging speed by up to 30% compared with the current square battery." BMW Group revealed that "based on the prediction of the current market environment, the cost of the sixth generation battery can be reduced by up to 50% compared with the fifth generation battery."
Dr. Pastor, the director of BMW Group in charge of procurement and supplier network, said that BMW and its partners would establish two cell factories in China, Europe and the North American Free Trade Zone, and the annual capacity of six cell factories could reach 20 GWh.
BMW Group has identified three major cylinder battery suppliers, namely Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy and Yuanjing Power. Among them, Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy will respectively guarantee the cylinder battery demand of BMW Group in China and Europe. Vision Power mainly meets the large cylinder battery demand of BMW Group in the North American market.
Driven by Tesla, BMW and other international OEMs, as well as the continuous investment of battery enterprises, it is expected that more car enterprises will follow up with large cylinder batteries. Northeast Securities predicts that in 2025, the installed capacity of 46 series of large cylindrical batteries in the world is expected to reach 255GWh, and the global market penetration rate can be increased to 20%. The proportion of cylindrical batteries in the global power battery market will increase significantly. "In the future, 4680 will have huge growth space, and will achieve rapid growth from" 0-1-N "."
The initial yield of Tesla 4680 production line was only 20%. In the first half of this year, the yield of small batch 4680 cells produced by its California factory reached 92%. Now, Tesla has increased the capacity of large cylinder batteries to 868000 per week, indicating that the yield of its production line has reached a stable level. It is expected that its capacity will continue to break the record in 2023, breaking mass production purgatory.
In addition to Tesla, the capacity of battery enterprises in the big cylinder is expected to be released rapidly in 2023. In June this year, LG New Energy announced that it would invest 580 billion won to expand its 4680 cylinder battery capacity of 9 GWh at its second factory in North Chungching, South Korea. The project is expected to start large-scale production in the second half of 2023. In addition, LG New Energy also announced that it would invest 1.7 trillion won to establish a wholly-owned power battery factory in Arizona, the United States, and plan to build a cylindrical battery project with an annual output of 11GWh, which is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2024.
In June this year, Panasonic sent a 4680 battery sample to Tesla. Tadanobu, CEO of Panasonic's energy sector, said that Panasonic is expected to achieve the mass production of 4680 batteries in Japan in May 2023, and it is expected that the factory will eventually transition to the production of 4680 batteries. It is worth noting that in March this year, Panasonic's energy company announced the construction of new production facilities in Japan's Wakayama plant for the production of 4680 batteries. The planned capacity of the two production lines is 10GWh.
In terms of domestic battery enterprises, the first 20GWh large cylindrical battery project launched by Yiwei Lithium Energy in Jingmen, Hubei Province in 2021 will be completed soon. It is reported that the full automatic pilot line of Yiwei Lithium Energy large cylinder has produced 500000 batteries accumulatively, with an overall excellence rate of 92%, overcoming technical difficulties such as full pole ear rubbing, welding and liquid injection.
In addition, on December 15, 2022, Yiwei Lithium Energy will release a new generation of 4695 large cylindrical batteries, with an energy density of 350Wh/kg, which can realize 9min ultra fast charging and 500-1000km endurance, increase the manufacturing efficiency by 30% and reduce the manufacturing cost by 50%. According to the plan, Yiwei Lithium Energy will have a total capacity of more than 100GWh in 2025, and will have production bases in Shenyang, Liaoning, Chengdu, Sichuan, Jingmen, Hubei, Hungary, etc.
As an early pioneer in the field of cylinders, BYK batteries began to deliver samples of 46 series batteries in batches last year, and their performance is in line with expectations. In terms of capacity expansion, BYK also has a preliminary plan. In the next few years, BYK will expand its battery capacity of 80GWh at home and abroad in two stages.
It is worth noting that at the beginning of December, Guoxuan Gaoke showed two 46 series cylindrical electric cores, 39Ah and 50Ah, to overseas customers for the first time. The energy density reached 310Wh/kg. It can be quickly charged to 80% in 18 minutes at room temperature, and no thermal diffusion is guaranteed in the UN38.3 limit test environment. This shows that Guoxuan High Tech has entered the camp of 46 series large cylinder batteries.