包括宁德时代在内的电池大佬路归何处？

动力电池领域疑似出现新变局。

3月6日，盖世汽车获悉，有媒体报道称，中创新航订单不足致部分员工离职。此外，一位接近宁德时代的知情人士告诉媒体，宁德时代的产能利用率也出现了下滑现象。

今年1月11日，针对投资者关于“公司目前产能利用率”的提问，宁德时代回复道，根据2022年半年度报告，公司电池系统产能利用率为81.25%。

但值得注意的是，2022年上半年，我国各地陆续出现疫情反复情况。其中上海和长春等城市受影响较大，不少车企都遭遇过停产、停工以及供应链短缺危机，动力电池厂商也被波及。故宁德时代在上述时间内出现产能下滑情况或属正常波动，目前尚无法判定该公司上述时间内产能利用率下滑即为产能过剩。

不过，宁德时代动力电池装机量正在下滑确是不争的事实。数据显示，今年1月，宁德时代动力电池装机量同比下滑12%，且近期宁德时代仍在持续扩张产能，其产能利用率是否会进一步下滑正引起业内猜疑。 

一手促销，一手扩产

此时是否已经到了动力电池产能过剩的节点？我们或许可以从近期宁德时代的众多举措中看出端倪。

近期，宁德时代最为吸睛的举动莫过于其开展的“锂矿返利”计划。

所谓“锂矿返利”，其本质上是宁德时代让利车企的方式，是从上游锂矿“省钱”—50%（该比例会动态调整）的电池按照20万元/吨的碳酸锂原材料价格计算，其余按照市价计算，差价返还主机厂。接受了让利的主机厂，三年内采购的电池比例不低于80%，第4-5年的供货量不低于前一年。合作签署后，将在今年三季度开始执行，目前部分车企已经在合作签署的过程中。

对此，有分析指出，站在交易机制设计的角度，“锂矿返利”计划的本质其实是“大额采购+绑定买家”，更类似平台卖场的打折促销。

“宁王”何至于此？其中重要的原因之一便是，宁德时代锂矿开始放量，但下游需求却有走低趋势，动力电池产能或将超额覆盖需求。

据中国汽车动力电池产业创新联盟数据，今年1月，我国动力电池装车量16.1GWh，同比下降0.3%，环比下降55.4%。其中三元电池装车量5.4GWh，占总装车量33.7%，同比下降25.6%，环比下降52.4%；磷酸铁锂电池装车量10.7GWh，占总装车量66.2%，同比增长20.4%，环比下降56.7%。

其中，宁德时代1月装车量为7.17GWh，环比大降近60%，同比下降11.8%，市占率44.41%，相比去年同期下降5.8个百分点。更甚者，国轩高科、亿纬锂能、中创新航、力神、鹏辉能源、蜂巢能源等装车量均环比腰斩。

这主要是由于动力电池厂商与新能源车企销量休戚相关。

由于补贴终止等原因，2023年开局，我国新能源车企交付量呈现颓势。根据盖世汽车统计结果，1月，我国车市整体则疲软，同比跌幅高达35%，环比下降35.5%，车企销量几乎全线下滑，最高跌幅甚至超八成，造车新势力几乎集体“扑街”。

此外，有媒体通过调研得知，当前动力电池库存压力主要来自于车企为清货、保证业绩目标而减少的电池采购订单，更偏向于结构性。有动力电池企业相关人士称，车企为了财务报表好看，年底的时候希望少提货(动力电池)，再加上2023年春节放假早，如果去年年底提货，也不能很快投放到市场。

中国科学院院士欧阳明高也曾表示，2025年中国电池产能可能达到3000GWh，而出货量则仅为1200GWh，产能过剩明显。

但值得注意的是，眼下宁德时代的多项举措，似乎是“自相矛盾”的。比如其一边渴求或许更多的订单以缓解过剩的产能，一边却又大手笔买矿，扩大锂矿版图。

蓄力：储能是下一个“战场”

近期，天眼查APP显示，雅江县斯诺威矿业发展有限公司（以下简称为：斯诺威）发生工商变更，原股东均退出，新增宁德时代为全资股东，同时公司法定代表人为及高管均发生变更。

据悉，斯诺威拥有四川雅江德扯弄巴锂矿的探矿权，该锂矿属于甲基卡锂辉石矿区，矿山储量1814万吨，平均品位1.34%，属于中大型锂矿。有媒体粗略计算，德扯弄巴锂矿可折合锂精矿405.19万吨，可共计产出碳酸锂50.65万吨。

要知道，此前斯诺威股权开启第三次拍卖之时，起拍价提高到2亿元，保证金高达四千万元。一场拍卖，宁德时代、协鑫能科、盛新锂能、天华超净等多家公司出手，厮杀激烈。如今，锂矿锤音已落，花落宁德时代。

这并非宁德时代首次重金买矿。今年2月份，新疆志特新材料有限公司（简称“新疆志特”）最终以约60.88亿元，拿下新疆若羌县瓦石峡南锂矿勘查探矿权。且此次竞价的起始价格为1580.9万元，竞标价格是起拍价格的约385倍。如此高的溢价和总拍卖价格在近年的屡创新高的锂矿竞拍中也能占到前列。

值得注意的是，新疆志特股权穿透后志存锂业拥有49%股权，宁德时代持有志存锂业23.16%股权为第二大股东。换言之，新疆若羌县瓦石峡南锂矿是宁德时代不断对外扩张的又一个缩影。

那么，在新能源汽车动力电池订单量不如从前的当下，宁德时代此举意欲何为？

实际上，宁德时代正在为下一个“战场”铺路——储能。在今年两会，宁德时代董事长曾毓群的建言主要以储能安全为核心，这也透露出了宁德时代布局储能赛道的信号。

要知道，宁德时代在储能领域的布局并不少。据悉，国家能源集团、中国能建、中国华电、三峡集团、阳光电源、阿特斯等国内外行业知名企业均是宁德时代的战略合作伙伴，这些企业成为宁德时代储能业务的主要市场。

根据财报，2022年上半年，宁德时代储能业务营收127.4亿元，仅占总营收的11.3%。虽然比例不高，但增速较快，上半年同比增长了171.4%。且在2021年，这一板块的整体营收为136.2亿元，同比增速高达601%，成为宁德时代增速最高的板块。

宁德时代储能业务仅用时半年就基本和2021年全年营收持平，侧面说明宁德时代在储能业务方面发展之迅猛。

根据相关研究报告，我国锂电储能厂商技术实力全球领先。电化学储能中，最为成熟的方案就是锂电池储能。其能量密度和效率很高，响应快速，但目前成本较高，随着锂电池制造成本的快速下降，电化学储能的需求也不断增加，将有望逐步取代抽水蓄能的市场份额。

实际上，如宁德时代一般走入储能赛道的动力电池厂商并不在少数。

比如开年前两个月，亿纬锂能在湖北荆门、云南曲靖等地投资扩产，总投资金额超360亿元，总规划产能超120GWh。此外，蜂巢能源董事长杨红新预计，该公司的储能业务份额在未来蜂巢能源营收中的占比将达到三分之一以上。其目标是到2025年合计全球储能市场占有率达到10%，并进入全球储能供应的TOP5阵营。

显然，宁德时代此时持续购入锂矿，意在向产业链上游布局，利于其在储能赛道中掌握先机，且更具备控制定价权的可能性。

抉择：动力电池新技术路线更迭期

更加值得注意的是，对于目前的生产过剩压力，某动力电池企业相关人士对媒体表示，新能源汽车销量不会爆发性增长，但是还会持续向上，动力电池产能过剩都是暂时现象。

此外，根据盖世汽车分析：“今年1-2月新能源汽车市场并没有给出非常高速的增幅表现，且在很多人的预期中。这个时间是成本调整期，相应的电池需求量也会有所缓和，今年上半年（动力电池厂商）都需要谨慎对待。”

换言之，眼下只是动力电池厂商对新能源汽车产业的谨慎考量期，且时间并不会太长。终究，新能源车企和动力电池厂商是不会互相抛弃的，但是，动力电池的技术路线却不一定始终如一。

所以，宁德时代在布局储能赛道寻找第二增长曲线的同时，也并未忘记继续探索新能源汽车动力电池的新技术路线，以此巩固其新能源汽车主营业务。钠离子电池便是宁德时代的选择。

这主要是因为，接下来，新能源车企将会把控制成本作为主要发展目标。而与锂电对比，钠电具有明显的经济性，理想状态下钠电成本可下降至0.25元/wh，而当前锂电综合成本约为0.65-1.2元/wh。 

眼下，国内主要锂电池企业都在布局这是钠离子电池。蜂巢能源规划，2023年，蜂巢能源希望将钠离子电池的能量密度做到135Wh/kg，2024-2025年做到160Wh/kg，最终希望做到180-200Wh/kg；2022年，亿纬纬锂能也发布了第一代大圆柱钠离子电池产品，能量密度为135 Wh/kg，循环寿命达到2500次，产品正准备进入中试环节；无独有偶，同年，欣旺达在投资者互动平台表示，该公司钠离子电池样品已经在进行测试验证，项目进展顺利，具体上市计划会根据客户需要确定。

然而，终归技术进展最快的还是宁德时代。宁德时代2021年7月发布第一代钠离子电池时，电芯单体能量密度已达160Wh/kg；第二代钠离子电池能量密度将达到200Wh/kg，接近三元锂电池。

此外，即使钠离子电池存在技术难关、研发生产投入大、前期成本相对较高，和产业链不完善等问题，但仍有企业从众多困难中脱颖而出，陆续透露钠离子电池项目定点的消息。

比如业内消息称，2023年第四季度，比亚迪的钠离子电池会率先在A00级车型海鸥上装车；宁德时代钠离子电池，2023年也将率先应用在A00级车，首款车会是上汽科莱威(配置|询价)改款，项目已经定点。

也就是说，接下来，宁德时代还需要去考量：要在何时、花费多少精力和资金投产钠离子电池，以及如何把控钠离子电池的量产节奏。与之相对应的，其锂离子电池产线也需要减少。

Where are the battery giants, including Ningde era?
There seems to be new changes in the field of power battery.
On March 6, Geshi Motor learned that there were media reports that some employees left due to insufficient orders from China Innovation Airlines. In addition, an insider close to the Ningde era told the media that the capacity utilization rate of the Ningde era also declined.
On January 11, this year, in response to the investor's question about "the company's current capacity utilization rate", Ningde Times replied that according to the semi-annual report of 2022, the company's battery system capacity utilization rate was 81.25%.
However, it is worth noting that in the first half of 2022, repeated outbreaks occurred in China. Among them, cities such as Shanghai and Changchun have been greatly affected. Many automobile enterprises have experienced production suspension, shutdown and supply chain shortage crises, and power battery manufacturers have also been affected. Therefore, the capacity decline of Ningde Times in the above time period or normal fluctuation, and it is not yet possible to determine that the decline of the company's capacity utilization rate in the above time period is overcapacity.
However, it is an indisputable fact that the installed capacity of power batteries in Ningde Times is declining. According to the data, in January this year, the installed capacity of power batteries in Ningde Times fell by 12% year on year, and recently, Ningde Times is still expanding its capacity. Whether its capacity utilization rate will decline further is causing suspicion in the industry.
Source: official website of Ningde Times
Promote and expand production at the same time
Has it reached the point of overcapacity of power battery? We may be able to see the clues from the many measures taken in the recent Ningde era.
Recently, the most eye-catching move of Ningde era is its "lithium rebate" plan.
The so-called "lithium ore rebate" is essentially the way that Ningde Times gives benefits to car companies. It is to "save money" from the upstream lithium ore - 50% (the proportion will be dynamically adjusted) of the battery is calculated according to the price of 200000 yuan/ton of lithium carbonate raw materials, and the rest is calculated according to the market price, and the difference is returned to the main engine factory. The proportion of batteries purchased by the main engine plant that has accepted the concession shall not be less than 80% in three years, and the supply volume in the fourth to fifth years shall not be less than the previous year. After the cooperation is signed, it will be implemented in the third quarter of this year. At present, some auto companies are already in the process of signing the cooperation.
In this regard, some analysts pointed out that from the perspective of the design of the trading mechanism, the essence of the "lithium rebate" plan is actually "large purchase+binding buyers", which is more similar to the discount promotion of platform stores.
Why is "King Ning" here? One of the important reasons is that the lithium mine in Ningde era began to expand, but the downstream demand has a downward trend, and the power battery capacity may exceed the demand.
According to the data of China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in January this year, China's power battery load was 16.1GWh, down 0.3% year-on-year and 55.4% month-on-month. Among them, the load of ternary batteries was 5.4GWh, accounting for 33.7% of the total load, down 25.6% year-on-year and 52.4% month-on-month; The load of lithium iron phosphate battery was 10.7GWh, accounting for 66.2% of the total load, with a year-on-year increase of 20.4% and a month-on-month decrease of 56.7%.
Among them, the loading volume of Ningde Times in January was 7.17GWh, down nearly 60% month-on-month, 11.8% year-on-year, 44.41% market share, 5.8 percentage points year-on-year. What's more, the loading volume of Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, China Innovation Airlines, Lishen, Penghui Energy, Honeycomb Energy, etc. all halved compared with the previous month.
Source: Ningde Times WeChat official account Source: Ningde Times WeChat official account
This is mainly due to the close relationship between the power battery manufacturers and the sales of new energy vehicle enterprises.
Due to the termination of subsidies and other reasons, the delivery volume of China's new energy vehicle enterprises declined in the beginning of 2023. According to the statistical results of Geshi Automobile, the overall car market in China was weak in January, with a year-on-year drop of up to 35% and a month-on-month drop of 35.5%. The sales volume of car enterprises fell almost all the way down, with the highest drop even exceeding 80%. The new forces of car building almost collectively "put out the street".
In addition, some media learned through research that the current pressure of power battery inventory mainly comes from the reduced battery purchase orders of vehicle enterprises to clear the goods and ensure the performance objectives, which are more structural. Some people from power battery companies said that in order to make the financial statements look good, the car companies hope to pick up less goods (power battery) at the end of the year. In addition, the Spring Festival holiday in 2023 is early. If they pick up goods at the end of last year, they can't put them on the market soon.
Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the CAS Member, also said that in 2025, China's battery production capacity may reach 3000 GWh, while the shipment volume is only 1200 GWh, with obvious overcapacity.
However, it is worth noting that many measures taken in the current Ningde era seem to be "contradictory". For example, while it is eager for more orders to alleviate the overcapacity, it is also buying large amounts of minerals to expand the lithium industry.
Energy storage: energy storage is the next "battlefield"
Recently, according to the Tianyancha APP, the industrial and commercial changes have taken place in Yajiang County Snowy Mining Development Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Snowy"), the original shareholders have withdrawn, and Ningde Times has been added as a wholly-owned shareholder. At the same time, the company's legal representative and senior executives have changed.
It is reported that Snowy owns the exploration right of the lithium mine in Dela Nongba, Yajiang, Sichuan. The lithium mine belongs to the methyl-carpyroxene mining area. The mine reserves 18.14 million tons, with an average grade of 1.34%, and belongs to a medium and large lithium mine. According to the rough calculation of the media, the lithium ore in DeLa Nongba can be converted into 4.0519 million tons of lithium concentrate, and a total of 506500 tons of lithium carbonate can be produced.
You should know that when the third auction of Snowe shares was opened, the starting price was raised to 200 million yuan and the margin was as high as 40 million yuan. In an auction, many companies such as Ningde Times, GCL Energy Technology, Shengxin Lithium Energy, and Tianhua Super Clean launched a fierce battle. Now, the sound of lithium hammer has fallen, and it has fallen into the Ningde era.
Source: Shengxin Lithium official website Source: Shengxin Lithium official website
This is not the first time that Ningde bought mines with heavy money. In February this year, Xinjiang Zhite New Material Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Xinjiang Zhite") finally won the exploration and exploration right of the South Washixia lithium deposit in Ruoqiang County, Xinjiang, with a total of about 6.088 billion yuan. And the starting price of this bidding is 15.89 million yuan, which is about 385 times of the starting price. Such a high premium and total auction price can also take the lead in the lithium ore auction with record high in recent years.
It is noteworthy that after the penetration of Xinjiang Zhite's equity, Zhicun Lithium owns 49% of the equity, and Ningde Times holds 23.16% of the equity of Zhicun Lithium as the second largest shareholder. In other words, the South Washixia Lithium Mine in Ruoqiang County, Xinjiang is another miniature of the continuous expansion of the Ningde era.
So, at a time when the order volume of new energy vehicle power battery is not as high as before, what is the intention of Ningde Times?
In fact, the Ningde era is paving the way for the next "battlefield" - energy storage. At the two sessions of this year, Zeng Yuqun, the chairman of Ningde Times, put energy storage safety at the core, which also revealed the signal that Ningde Times laid out the energy storage track.
You should know that the layout of Ningde era in the field of energy storage is not many. It is reported that national energy group, China Energy Construction, China Huadian, Three Gorges Group, Sunshine Power, Atlas and other well-known enterprises in the industry at home and abroad are strategic partners of Ningde Times, and these enterprises have become the main market of Ningde Times' energy storage business.
According to the financial report, in the first half of 2022, the revenue of Ningde Times energy storage business was 12.74 billion yuan, accounting for only 11.3% of the total revenue. Although the proportion is not high, the growth rate is fast, with a year-on-year increase of 171.4% in the first half of the year. In 2021, the overall revenue of this sector was 13.62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 601%, making it the fastest growing sector in the Ningde era.
The energy storage business of Ningde Times took only half a year to basically maintain the same revenue as the whole year of 2021, which shows the rapid development of the energy storage business of Ningde Times.
Source: official website of Ningde Times
According to relevant research reports, China's lithium battery energy storage manufacturers have the leading technical strength in the world. In electrochemical energy storage, the most mature scheme is lithium battery energy storage. Its energy density and efficiency are very high, and its response is fast, but its current cost is high. With the rapid decline of lithium battery manufacturing costs, the demand for electrochemical energy storage is also increasing, which is expected to gradually replace the market share of pumped storage.
In fact, there are not a few power battery manufacturers that have entered the energy storage circuit like Ningde Times.
For example, in the first two months of the new year, Yiwei Lithium Energy invested in Jingmen, Hubei, Qujing, Yunnan and other places to expand production, with a total investment of more than 36 billion yuan and a total planned capacity of more than 120 GWh. In addition, Yang Hongxin, chairman of Honeycomb Energy, predicted that the company's share of energy storage business would account for more than one third of Honeycomb's revenue in the future. Its goal is to reach 10% of the global energy storage market share by 2025 and enter the TOP5 camp of global energy storage supply.
Obviously, Ningde Times continues to purchase lithium ore at this time, aiming to layout upstream of the industrial chain, which will help it grasp the opportunity in the energy storage track and have the possibility of controlling the pricing power.
Choice: the change period of new technology route of power battery
What is more noteworthy is that for the current pressure of overproduction, a relevant person of a power battery company told the media that the sales of new energy vehicles will not increase explosively, but will continue to rise. The power battery overcapacity is a temporary phenomenon.
In addition, according to the analysis of Gaeser Automobile, "the new energy vehicle market did not show a very high growth performance in January and February this year, and it is expected by many people. This time is the cost adjustment period, and the corresponding battery demand will also be eased. In the first half of this year (power battery manufacturers) need to be treated with caution."
In other words, it is only a prudent period for power battery manufacturers to consider the new energy vehicle industry, and the time will not be too long. After all, new energy vehicle enterprises and power battery manufacturers will not abandon each other, but the technical route of power battery is not necessarily consistent.
Therefore, Ningde Times has not forgotten to continue to explore the new technology route of new energy vehicle power battery while laying out the energy storage track and looking for the second growth curve, so as to consolidate its main business of new energy vehicles. Sodium ion battery is the choice of Ningde era.
Source: official website of Ningde Times
This is mainly because, next, new energy vehicle companies will take cost control as their main development goal. Compared with lithium battery, sodium battery has obvious economic benefits. Under ideal conditions, the cost of sodium battery can be reduced to 0.25 yuan/wh, while the current comprehensive cost of lithium battery is about 0.65-1.2 yuan/wh.
At present, the main lithium battery enterprises in China are laying out this type of battery. According to the Honeycomb Energy Plan, in 2023, Honeycomb Energy hopes to achieve the energy density of the sodium ion battery of 135Wh/kg, 160Wh/kg in 2024-2025, and 180-200Wh/kg in the end; In 2022, Yiwei Lithium also released the first generation of large cylindrical sodium ion battery products, with energy density of 135 Wh/kg and cycle life of 2500 times. The products are preparing to enter the pilot phase; Coincidentally, in the same year, Xinwanda said on the investor interaction platform that the company's sodium ion battery samples had been tested and verified, and the project was progressing smoothly. The specific listing plan would be determined according to customer needs.
However, after all, the fastest technological progress was in the Ningde era. When Ningde Times released the first generation of sodium-ion battery in July 2021, the energy density of cell monomer had reached 160Wh/kg; The energy density of the second-generation sodium-ion battery will reach 200Wh/kg, close to the ternary lithium battery.
In addition, even though there are technical difficulties, large investment in R&D and production, relatively high upfront costs, and imperfect industrial chain in the sodium ion battery, there are still enterprises that stand out from many difficulties and disclose the news of the fixed point of the sodium ion battery project in succession.
For example, industry sources said that in the fourth quarter of 2023, BYD's sodium ion battery would take the lead in loading on the A00 class seagull; Ningde era sodium-ion battery will also be the first to be used in A00 class cars in 2023. The first car will be changed by SAIC KLEV (configuration | inquiry), and the project has been fixed.
That is to say, next, Ningde Times still needs to consider when, how much energy and money it will spend to put sodium ion batteries into production, and how to control the pace of mass production of sodium ion batteries. Correspondingly, its lithium-ion battery production line also needs to be reduced.