近日，多家车企宣布PHEV车型(插电混动汽车)降价，剑指10万元以下、燃油车以往的热销阵地之一。网友辣评燃油车内心独白：今日降三万，明日降五万，然后得一夕安寝。起视四境，而秦兵又至矣。

　　2024年刚开年，PHEV汽车就向燃油车发起“猛攻”，一场“血海”竞赛正拉开帷幕，配套PHEV的动力电池成为这场角力赛的关键因素之一。

01

新能源汽车2024年开门大“急”

　　与2023年“油电同价”的口号不同，近日，比亚迪喊出“电比油低”的口号，原因是比亚迪秦PLUS荣耀版、驱逐舰05荣耀版车型上市，售价下探至7.98万元起。

　　比亚迪品牌及公关处总经理李云飞表示，得益于比亚迪的规模化效应及全产业链优势，比亚迪插电混动(车型)的价格可以做到比同级燃油车还要低，不仅价格比燃油车低，还可油可电，油耗超低。

　　作为全球新能源汽车领跑者，在比亚迪的“锚点”效应下，国内部分车企迅速降价跟进。

　　其中，五菱星光插混乘用车150km进阶版售价由此前的10.58万元调整至9.98万元，同时五菱表示“小卷不算卷”，网友猜测其下一步可能还有大动作。

　　打出“电比油低!低!低!”口号的同时，长安启源Q05、A05两款插混乘用车价格下调至最低7.89万元起;

　　哪吒汽车宣布，其全系产品最高直降2.2万元;

　　100km纯电续航插混乘用车吉利帝豪L HiP龙腾版2月20日上市，入门价下调2万元至8.98万元，顶配版则为9.98万元。

　　电池中国认为，插混乘用车2024年开年降价“急行”，将给燃油车带来较大冲击。

　　实际上，相比于燃油车，新能源车容易受到续航焦虑、补能焦虑、购车成本较高等因素带来的影响，这在一定程度上阻碍了新能源车替代燃油车的步伐，汽车电动化进程也由此受到一定影响。

　　从市场格局来看，2023年我国新能源汽车新车渗透率达31.6%，单月甚至突破40%，据比亚迪董事长兼总裁王传福预计，2024年或有单月渗透率将超过50%。

　　而随着新车渗透率不断提升，新能源汽车阵营需要从燃油车阵营获得越来越多的市场份额，尤其需要把燃油车阵营的“传统型消费者“转化为新能源汽车的用户，而降低购车成本、无续航焦虑、电池耐用等核心指标，就是部分消费者较为看重的特征。

　　在此背景下，“电比油低”“可电可油”的插混乘用车，将使车主至少在三个方面受益：一是，购车成本上实现“电比油低”;二是，能够在城市短途通勤中用电，降低出行成本;三是，在长途出行时可以烧油，缓解车主的续航和补能焦虑。

　　由此可见，可以解决当前行业痛点的插混乘用车，已成为新能源汽车“猛攻”燃油车的利器之一，其率先打响价格战，无疑将对新能源汽车开拓市场极为有利。

　　接下来，插混乘用车销量有望继续快速上升，与此同时，作为影响插混乘用车成本、核心性能的要素之一，动力电池成为业界关注的重点。随着插混市场降价后刺激销量提高，将带动相关电池企业装机量进一步增长;价格战将对插混动力电池降本提出更高要求，并且压力向上游传导;加速电池技术迭代，以及电池企业前瞻的业务布局或对新能源汽车提高全球竞争力起到积极作用。

02

猛攻燃油车，插混动力电池发力技术迭代/降本

　　据统计，2024年1月我国新能源汽车销量为72.9万辆，同比增长78.8%。分驱动形式来看，插混汽车销量28.4万辆，同比增长135.0%;纯电动汽车销量44.5万辆，同比增长55.1%。

　　从数据看，今年1月插混汽车销量增速延续了2023年增长的势头，不仅实现同比1.35倍的高增长，而且增速超纯电汽车的2.45倍。

　　受此影响，按车型划分，作为插混汽车的主力军，1月插混乘用车的动力电池装机量也表现亮眼，同比高增192.8%，市场占比较2023年1月提升7.6个百分点;纯电乘用车动力电池装机量同比增长70.5%。插混乘用车动力电池装机量增速超纯电增速的2.73倍。

　　动力电池应用分会数据显示，2023年中国市场插混乘用车电池装机量排名靠前的企业包括：比亚迪、宁德时代、蜂巢能源、亿纬锂能、国轩高科、孚能科技、瑞浦兰钧、正力新能和中创新航等。

　　随着PHEV市场打响价格战，预计2024年动力电池技术迭代、装机情况、降本等方面都将带来显著的变化：

　　一是，资料显示，当前大电量快充电池逐渐成为PHEV车型标配。在车企混动技术带动下，PHEV市场自去年已掀起提高电池包带电量、功率、充电效率等技术浪潮。

　　PHEV车型纯电续航里程从过去的50-70km已提升至100-200km，而且具备快充、对外放电等功能的车型更受车主青睐。

　　同时，头部电池企业聚焦提升电池包工作功率，如比亚迪研发的超级混动专用功率型刀片电池在其PHEV车型中已成为主力动力电池。

　　二是，PHEV电池技术将不断升级，2024年PHEV电池新品或将陆续上市。

　　作为国内最早一批布局PHEV(含增程式)市场的电池企业，蜂巢能源已量产的PHEV产品覆盖50km-200km纯电续航需求，其飞叠短刀62Ah和117Ah电池成为2023年PHEV市场的爆款单品，并带动其在PHEV领域2023年累计装机量达5.6GWh，同比暴增409.1%。

　　2024年1月19日，随着蜂巢能源第40万套PHEV电池包在其常州总部基地下线，目前其产品已配套吉利银河、岚图、理想、坦克等20余款PHEV车型。

　　而受益于市场需求，今年头部电池企业在技术升级基础上，或将推出更多适用于PHEV车型的电池新品，助力配套车型提高市场竞争力。如蜂巢能源宣布，今年将推出多款具备2.2C快充、纯电续航300km+的短刀PHEV电池。

　　三是，PHEV电池装机量整体将持续增加。头部电池企业2024年装机表现值得期待，而且在大电量趋势下，由PHEV电池影响总装机量排行发生变化，也不无可能。

　　四是，动力电池供应链降本增效将贯穿2024年。以宁德时代和弗迪电池为例，自去年年末就开始梳理产线资源，力求降本增效。宁德时代将推广其173Ah的VDA规格磷酸铁锂电芯，以大单品思路扩大规模降低成本，价格不超过0.4元/Wh。比亚迪也发布内部通知，敦促团队进行电池降本。

　　纵向对比，去年年初方形磷酸铁锂电芯价格在0.8-0.9元/Wh，而近期价格降至0.38-0.43元/Wh，同比价格“腰斩”。

　　在下游降本需求下，方形磷酸铁锂电芯价格已快速下探至0.4元/Wh左右，0.3元/Wh时代似乎就在眼前，电池、上游电池核心材料等环节，以及生产工艺等面临的降本压力进一步增大。

　　放眼2024年，如小鹏汽车董事长何小鹏在新年开工信中提到，“2024年中国汽车品牌将进入“血海”竞争。”

　　目前，释放“电比油低”信号的品牌和车型还在扩大，这也为中高端车型提高电动化占比埋下伏笔。

　　大容量高比能功率型快充动力电池技术的持续升级、成本不断降低，将为新能源汽车扩大市占率再添筹码，其示范效应还将进一步助力我国新能源汽车出口。业界普遍认为，这波10万元以下车型的降价潮只是今年的“开胃菜”，后续10万元-15万元等主流价格区间也将迎来激烈的“战事”。在此过程中，中国新能源汽车新车单月渗透率何时达到50%?业界拭目以待。

Recently, multiple car companies announced price reductions for PHEV models (plug-in hybrid vehicles), targeting one of the past hot selling positions for gasoline vehicles priced below 100000 yuan. Netizens commented on fuel powered cars and their inner monologue: Today it will be reduced by 30000 yuan, tomorrow it will be reduced by 50000 yuan, and then they will have to rest overnight. Looking at the four realms, the Qin army arrived again.
"Bloodthirst Battle" of Fuel Vehicles, Rise of PHEV Batteries!
At the beginning of 2024, PHEV cars launched a fierce attack on gasoline powered cars, and a "sea of blood" competition is beginning. The power battery equipped with PHEV has become one of the key factors in this competition.
01
New energy vehicles face a major "rush" to open in 2024
Unlike the slogan of "oil and electricity at the same price" in 2023, BYD has recently shouted the slogan of "electricity is lower than oil". The reason is that BYD's Qin PLUS Honor Edition and Destroyer 05 Honor Edition models have been launched, with prices starting at 79800 yuan.
Li Yunfei, General Manager of BYD Brand and Public Relations, said that thanks to BYD's economies of scale and advantages in the entire industry chain, the price of BYD plug-in hybrid (models) can be lower than that of gasoline cars in the same class. Not only is the price lower than that of gasoline cars, but it can also be both gasoline and electric, with ultra-low fuel consumption.
As a global leader in new energy vehicles, under BYD's "anchor point" effect, some domestic car companies have quickly lowered prices to follow suit.
Among them, the price of the 150km advanced version of the Wuling Starlight plug-in hybrid passenger car has been adjusted from 105800 yuan to 99800 yuan. At the same time, Wuling stated that "small rolls do not count", and netizens speculate that it may have big moves in the next step.
While promoting the slogan "Electricity is lower than fuel! Low! Low!", the prices of Changan Qiyuan Q05 and A05 plug-in hybrid passenger cars have been lowered to a minimum of 78900 yuan;
Nezha Motors announced that its entire product line will experience a maximum direct drop of 22000 yuan;
The Geely Emgrand L HiP Longteng version, a 100km pure electric plug-in hybrid passenger car, was launched on February 20th. The entry-level price has been reduced by 20000 yuan to 89800 yuan, while the top of the line version is 99800 yuan.
Battery China believes that the rapid price reduction of plug-in hybrid passenger cars in 2024 will have a significant impact on gasoline vehicles.
In fact, compared to gasoline vehicles, new energy vehicles are more susceptible to factors such as range anxiety, energy replenishment anxiety, and higher purchase costs, which to some extent hinder the pace of new energy vehicles replacing gasoline vehicles, and the process of vehicle electrification is also affected.
From the perspective of market structure, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China reached 31.6% in 2023, even exceeding 40% in a single month. According to Wang Chuanfu, Chairman and President of BYD, it is expected that the penetration rate may exceed 50% in a single month in 2024.
As the penetration rate of new cars continues to increase, the new energy vehicle camp needs to gain more and more market share from the fuel vehicle camp, especially the need to transform the "traditional consumers" of the fuel vehicle camp into users of new energy vehicles. Core indicators such as reducing purchase costs, no range anxiety, and battery durability are characteristics that some consumers value more.
In this context, plug-in hybrid passenger cars with "low electricity to fuel" and "electric to fuel" will benefit car owners in at least three aspects: firstly, achieving "low electricity to fuel" in terms of purchasing costs; Secondly, being able to use electricity during short distance commuting in cities can reduce travel costs; Thirdly, during long-distance travel, fuel can be burned to alleviate the anxiety of car owners about battery life and energy replenishment.
From this, it can be seen that plug-in hybrid passenger cars, which can solve the current industry pain points, have become one of the sharp tools for new energy vehicles to fiercely attack fuel vehicles. Taking the lead in launching a price war will undoubtedly be extremely beneficial for the development of the new energy vehicle market.
Next, the sales of plug-in hybrid passenger cars are expected to continue to rise rapidly. At the same time, as one of the factors affecting the cost and core performance of plug-in hybrid passenger cars, power batteries have become a focus of industry attention. With the price reduction in the plug-in hybrid market stimulating sales, it will drive further growth in the installed capacity of related battery companies; The price war will put forward higher requirements for cost reduction of plug-in hybrid batteries, and the pressure will be transmitted upstream; Accelerating the iteration of battery technology and the forward-looking business layout of battery companies may play a positive role in enhancing the global competitiveness of new energy vehicles.
02
Fierce attack on fuel vehicles, plug-in hybrid battery power technology iteration/cost reduction
According to statistics, the sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 729000 units in January 2024, a year-on-year increase of 78.8%. From the perspective of different driving forms, the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles reached 284000 units, a year-on-year increase of 135.0%; The sales of pure electric vehicles reached 445000 units, a year-on-year increase of 55.1%.
From the data, the sales growth rate of plug-in hybrid vehicles in January this year continued the trend of growth in 2023, not only achieving a high growth rate of 1.35 times year-on-year, but also exceeding the growth rate of pure electric vehicles by 2.45 times.
Affected by this, as the main force of plug-in hybrid vehicles, the installed power batteries of plug-in hybrid passenger cars in January also performed well, with a year-on-year increase of 192.8%, and a market share increase of 7.6 percentage points compared to January 2023; The installed capacity of power batteries for pure electric passenger vehicles increased by 70.5% year-on-year. The installed capacity growth rate of plug-in hybrid passenger car power batteries is 2.73 times higher than that of pure electric vehicles.
According to data from the Power Battery Application Branch, the top ranked companies in the installed capacity of plug-in hybrid passenger car batteries in the Chinese market in 2023 include BYD, CATL, Honeycomb Energy, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan High tech, Funeng Technology, Ruipu Lanjun, Zhengli New Energy, and China Innovation Aviation.
With the price war in the PHEV market, it is expected that there will be significant changes in the iteration of power battery technology, installation situation, cost reduction, and other aspects in 2024:
Firstly, data shows that currently, high battery fast charging batteries are gradually becoming standard on PHEV models. Driven by hybrid technology from automotive companies, the PHEV market has seen a wave of technological improvements in battery pack capacity, power, and charging efficiency since last year.
The pure electric range of PHEV models has increased from 50-70km in the past to 100-200km, and models with fast charging and external discharge functions are more favored by car owners.
At the same time, top battery companies focus on improving the working power of battery packs, such as BYD's super hybrid dedicated power blade battery, which has become the main power battery in its PHEV models.
Secondly, PHEV battery technology will continue to upgrade, and new PHEV battery products may be launched one after another in 2024.
As one of the earliest battery companies in China to layout the PHEV (including extended range) market, Honeycomb Energy has mass-produced PHEV products that cover the pure electric range demand of 50km-200km. Its flying stack short blade 62Ah and 117Ah batteries have become popular products in the PHEV market in 2023, driving its cumulative installed capacity in the PHEV field to reach 5.6GWh in 2023, a year-on-year surge of 409.1%.
On January 19, 2024, with the 400000th PHEV battery pack of Honeycomb Energy being taken offline at its Changzhou headquarters, its products have now been equipped with more than 20 PHEV models, including Geely Galaxy, Lantu, Ideal, Tank, etc.
Benefiting from market demand, this year's top battery companies may launch more new battery products suitable for PHEV models on the basis of technological upgrades, to help improve market competitiveness of supporting models. As Honeycomb Energy announced, it will launch multiple short blade PHEV batteries with 2.2C fast charging and pure electric range of 300km+this year.
Thirdly, the overall installed capacity of PHEV batteries will continue to increase. The installation performance of top battery companies in 2024 is worth looking forward to, and it is also possible that the total installed capacity ranking will change due to the influence of PHEV batteries in the trend of high electricity consumption.
Fourthly, cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the power battery supply chain will continue throughout 2024. Taking Ningde Times and Fudi Battery as examples, we have been sorting out production line resources since the end of last year, striving to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Ningde Times will promote its 173Ah VDA specification lithium iron phosphate battery cells, expand the scale and reduce costs with a large single product concept, and the price will not exceed 0.4 yuan/Wh. BYD has also issued an internal notice urging the team to reduce battery costs.
Vertical comparison shows that at the beginning of last year, the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries was between 0.8-0.9 yuan/Wh, but recently the price has dropped to 0.38-0.43 yuan/Wh, halving the year-on-year price.
Under the downstream cost reduction demand, the price of square lithium iron phosphate batteries has rapidly dropped to around 0.4 yuan/Wh, and the era of 0.3 yuan/Wh seems to be in sight. The cost reduction pressure faced by batteries, upstream battery core materials, and production processes has further increased.
Looking ahead to 2024, as stated by He Xiaopeng, Chairman of Xiaopeng Motors, in his New Year's commencement letter, "Chinese automotive brands will enter a" sea of blood "competition in 2024."
At present, the number of brands and models that release the signal of "low electricity to fuel" is still expanding, which also lays the groundwork for increasing the proportion of electrification in mid to high end models.
The continuous upgrading and cost reduction of high capacity and high specific energy fast charging power battery technology will add chips to expand the market share of new energy vehicles, and its demonstration effect will further assist China's new energy vehicle exports. The industry generally believes that this wave of price reductions for models priced below 100000 yuan is just an appetizer for this year, and mainstream price ranges such as 100000 yuan to 150000 yuan will also face fierce competition. During this process, when will the monthly penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China reach 50%? The industry is waiting to see.